An in-depth analysis of the sharp decline in Singapore's petrochemical exports: opportunities and challenges under the reshaping of the trade pattern

Singapore's petrochemical export data in July showed a significant decline, plunging 23.4 per cent year-on-year to 1.05 billion Singapore dollars, a decline far exceeding market expectations, reflecting a deep adjustment in the global petrochemical trade pattern. More notably, Singapore's overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 4.6 per cent year-on-year, in sharp contrast to the strong revised 12.9 per cent growth in June, indicating a sharp change in the trading environment.

In terms of segments, exports of non-electronic products fell 6.6 per cent year-on-year, with exports of pharmaceutical products plummeting 18.9 per cent, a major drag on overall performance. This phenomenon reflects the direct impact of global supply chain adjustment on high value-added chemical products, especially in the field of pharmaceutical intermediates and APIs.

Analysis of Geo-trade Pattern singapore's non-oil exports to the United States fell 42.7 per cent year-on-year, with pharmaceutical shipments plummeting 93.5 per cent, a figure that fully illustrates the far-reaching impact of US tariff policy on chemical trade in the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, Singapore's non-oil exports to the European Union, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have achieved growth, while exports to China and Indonesia have declined. This differentiation pattern provides an important reference for the market layout of chemical companies.

Industry Status and Future Prospects

the core advantages of Singapore's petrochemical industry due to its position as a leading petrochemical manufacturing and export hub in Southeast Asia. Jurong Island Chemical Industry Park has gathered more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Aster Chemicals & Energy, forming a complete industrial ecological chain. This cluster effect not only reduces logistics costs, but more importantly creates an environment for technology spillovers and collaborative innovation.

Despite the short-term challenges, the Singapore government is cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook, raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 0-2 per cent to 1.5-2.5 per cent. This adjustment reflects policymakers' confidence in the underlying economy and provides a positive signal for the medium-to long-term development of the chemical industry.

The Deep Impact of Geopolitical Factors not to be overlooked. The timing of the implementation of the US tariff policy (August 7) coincides with a critical period for the redefinition of global trade partnerships. The progress of the negotiations on the U. S.-Russia-Ukraine issue, the final result of the U. S.-China-India trade negotiations, and the subsequent adjustment of tariffs on bulk commodities such as automobiles and steel (currently as high as 25% and 50% respectively) will directly affect the global trade flow of chemical products.

Market opportunity identification the OCBC research report pointed out that Singapore is actively seeking tariff exemptions or preferential policies in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical fields, which provides an important policy window for related chemical companies. Given the basis for a good performance in the first half of 2025, NODX growth is expected to rebound to 2 per cent for the full year, well above last year's modest growth of 0.2 per cent.

Strategic recommendations for overseas chemical practitioners, the current time point should focus on three aspects: first, closely follow the follow-up adjustment of US tariff policy, especially the specific impact on chemical intermediates and fine chemicals; second, strengthen cooperation with local enterprises in Singapore and make full use of its regional hub status and policy advantages; third, lay out growth markets such as the European Union, Taiwan and South Korea in advance to diversify trade risks.

The short-term volatility of Singapore's petrochemical industry reflects a deep reshaping of the global trade landscape, but its core competencies such as infrastructure advantages, policy support and geographical location remain strong. For practitioners in the chemical industry, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. The key lies in how to grasp the trend in the change and find growth points in the adjustment.