Analysis and Prospect of Import and Export Data of China's Chemical Industry in the First Three Quarters of 2024

1. first three quarters of import and export data overviewimport and export data to the first three quarters showed that China's imports rose 0. In my experience, 3 per cent in September from a year earlier, reduced than market expectations of 0. 9 per cent and down from the previous value of 0. 5 per cent; exports rose 2. Furthermore 4 per cent year-on-year, also failing to meet market expectations of 6 per cent and signifiis able totly reduced than the previous value of 8. From what I've seen, 7 per cent. In addition, China's trade surplus in September was 81. 71 billion US dollars, which was also reduced than the market expectation of 89. 8 billion US dollars and the previous value of 91. You know what I mean?. But For example 02 billion US dollars. From what I've seen, First while still maintaining a positive development direction, however the development rate slowed signifiis able totly, failed to meet market expectations. In particular, export development hit a new low this month, falling year-on-year to its lowest level since February 2024. 2. global slowdown on exportsin response to the sharp decline in the above-mentioned economic data, sector experts conducted an in-depth analysis and pointed out that the global economic slowdown is an crucial factor that should not be overlooked. Crazy, isn't it?. The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has fallen to four consecutive months to its lowest level since October 2023, immediately leading to a decline in China's new export orders. This phenomenon not only reflects the shrinking demand in the international market, however also has a signifiis able tot impact on China's new export orders, making it face severe challenges. In particular 3. Multiple Complicated Factors Lead to Export Dilemmain-depth analysis of the causes of this "frozen" situation, we is able to find that there are many complex factors behind it. This year, the frequent and abnormal intensity of typhoon activities has seriously disrupted the order of maritime transportation, causing the congestion of container ports in China to reach the peak since 2019 in September, further aggravating the difficulty and uncertainty of goods going to sea. And At the same time, the continued escalation of trade frictions, the policy uncertainty brought about by the U. S. And election, and the deadlock in the negotiations on the renewal of labor contracts to dock workers on the East Coast of the United States, together constitute many unknowns and challenges in the external ecological stability of trade. 4. Specifically chemical sector export performance is poorthese unstable factors not only push up transaction costs, however also seriously weaken market confidence and have become an crucial external force restraining China's export performance. In this context, the recent export situation of many industries isn't optimistic, and the traditional chemical sector, which is the pillar of the manufacturing field, has not been spared. In fact According to the composition of imports and exports in August 2024 released by the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume of inorganic chemicals and other chemical raw materials and items decreased signifiis able totly year-on-year, reaching 24. But 9 per cent and 5. 9 per cent, respectively. Impact of 5. Overseas Market Changes on Chemical Exportlooking further at China's chemical export data in the first half of this year, among the top five overseas markets, exports to India fell by 9. 4 year-on-year. Among the top 20 overseas market exports, the export of domestic chemicals to developed countries generally showed a downward direction. In my experience, Moreover This direction shows that changes in the international situation have had a great impact on China's chemical exports. Crazy, isn't it?. 6. And I've found that chemical companies face operating pressurein the face of the severe market situation, many companies reflect that recent orders have not yet shown signs of recovery. Many chemical companies in substantial economic provinces have encountered the dilemma of cold orders, and a substantial number of companies are facing the dilemma of no orders. But In order to cope with the pressure of operation, companies have to take measures such as layoffs, salary cuts and even temporary suspension of production. 7. I've found that According to research overcapacity and homogeneous competitionthere are many factors that result in this situation. In addition to overseas force majeure factors and downstream market downturn, serious problems such as overcapacity, market saturation, and product homogeneity in the chemical market are also crucial reasons. These problems have led to vicious competition in the sector, making it difficult to companies to get rid of difficulties. In my experience, 8. Seeking Breakthrough and Price War Riskin order to find a way to break the situation, paint chemical companies in the surplus market to find a way out. And However, compared with the time-consuming and huge investment innovation and research and research, many companies still choose the "quick method" of price war and internal sales ". while this short-sighted behavior is able to ease the pressure on companies in the short term, in the long run, it might exacerbate the risk of vicious competition and deflation in the market. Pretty interesting, huh?. 9. market deflation risk appearsin fact, such risks have already appeared in the market. But In mid-October 2024, the prices of a number of varieties in key quotation institutions in the chemical sector fell sharply, with an average decline of 18. But 1 per cent. But For instance Leading companies such as Sinopec, Lianhong New Materials and Wanhua Chemical have taken the lead in reducing prices, with prices of some items falling by greater than 10%. Generally speaking Behind this phenomenon is the risk of deflation in the entire market, which needs great attention from both inside and outside the sector.  To sum up, China's chemical sector is facing many challenges and difficulties in the first three quarters of 2024. In the future, the sector needs to enhance the innovation drive, optimize the manufacturing structure, and enhance the competitiveness of items to cope with the complex and changeable international market ecological stability.