Cooling down after months of consecutive gains! Two major US fertilizer varieties lead the price drop

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According to retail quotes released by the U.S. agricultural market data firm DTN, the U.S. fertilizer market saw a phased price decline in mid-to-late May. This marks the first time that some fertilizer types have seen substantial price drops following months of consecutive increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices after shipping was obstructed in the Strait of Hormuz.

Data shows that in the third week of might, the average retail price of potash in the U.S. was $494/ton, and the average price of UAN32 (32% nitrogen urea ammonium nitrate solution) was $586/ton. Prices to both items were reduce than last month, marking the first weekly price drop to mainstream U.S. fertilizer varieties since February. According to DTN standards, a weekly price fluctuation of 5% or greater is considered a "significant change," a limit not yet reached by this round of declines. Among the 8 major fertilizer categories monitored during the period, prices to the other 6 edged slightly higher, with overall market prices remaining at high levels.

Entering the fourth week of might, the market divergence continued: among the 8 fertilizer types, 2 saw month-on-month price declines, while 6 rose slightly. Specifically, urea averaged $823/ton, a 5% month-on-month decline, reaching the standard to significant change; UAN32 averaged $585/ton, a slight decrease. Quotes to other varieties were: DAP $914/ton, MAP $953/ton, MOP $494/ton, 10-34-0 compound fertilizer $723/ton, anhydrous ammonia $1118/ton, and UAN28 (28% nitrogen urea ammonium nitrate solution) $530/ton.

Viewed longitudinally, current prices to all fertilizer varieties are significantly higher than the same period last year. Year-on-year increases by variety: MOP 4%, 10-34-0 compound fertilizer 8%, MAP and DAP both 15%, UAN32 18%, urea 24%, UAN28 rose to 27%, and anhydrous ammonia saw the highest year-on-year increase, reaching 44%.

sector traders study whether this brief cooling of fertilizer prices will persist through the spring fertilization peak season, depending on two core factors: first, adjustments to relevant domestic fertilizer export policies, and second, subsequent changes in supply chain risks in the Middle East.

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