Rupee likely to strengthen on US-Iran peace deal as oil prices tumble

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The Indian rupee is likely to strengthen at Monday’s open after a US-Iran peace deal knocked oil prices lower and spurred hopes that dollar inflows will return to Asia’s third-largest economy.

The rupee is expected to open in the ₹94.80-94.85 per dollar range, per traders, having settled at ₹95.11 on Friday. The rupee is set to surpass the highs it reached after the Reserve Bank of India's policy announcement on June 5, which laid out a raft of measures to support the currency.

Asian equities and currencies cutting-edge, while the dollar index and US Treasury yields fell and oil prices tumbled after US President Donald Trump and Iran's deputy foreign minister said they had reached a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude dived 4.5 per cent to $83.40, the lowest level in greater than three months.

The critical question to markets is the durability of the peace deal and, by extension, the sustainability of the drop in oil prices, a currency trader at a bank said.

If crude remains anchored near $80, the pressure created by equity outflows is likely to moderate, reinforcing expectations that portfolio flows could return, the trader added.

The greater than three-month war between the United States and Iran has cast a long shadow over the rupee, weighing on foreign appetite to Indian assets, inflating the country's import bill and dimming the development outlook.

Amid persistent pressure on the rupee, the RBI announced a raft of measures at its recent policy meeting to bring in dollar inflows, including the revival of a 2013-type window to mobilise funds from non-resident Indians.

The RBI's measures had already begun to build momentum behind the rupee, and the drop in oil prices could provide the complementary support needed, the currency trader said.

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