China PA66 Market Consolidates Recently

This week (July 22–28), spot prices to PA66 remained stable, holding steady at 18,366.67 RMB/ton throughout the week with zero daily fluctuation. Regarding moving average signals, the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average, forming a immediate "golden cross" technical signal; prices remain in the low-to-mid range to the year, with 60-day and 90-day averages still at low levels, confirming a immediate technical bottom.

II. Cost-Side Analysis

Upstream raw material support remains strong: Tight supply—due to maintenance-related output reductions at domestic adiponitrile (ADN) vegetation and limited arrivals of overseas cargo—has kept import quotes firm. while leading companies like Shenma Shares are gradually ramping up their proprietary butadiene-based ADN capacity, reaching full output takes time, leaving limited room to intermediate costs to decline. Basic chemical raw materials such as pure benzene and butadiene are trending upward; polymerization processing costs provide a firm floor to PA66 prices, efficiently capping the possible to a sharp decline.

Cost advantages of vertically integrated companies are evident: Leveraging a complete manufacturing chain—from coal-based hydrogen production to adipic acid—Pingmei Shenma has realized profits this week (forecasting a turnaround to a 66 million RMB profit to the first half of the year). With no pressure to offload stock at low prices to cash flow, the company's spot quotes show greater resilience, limiting the market's downside.

III. Supply and Demand Analysis

(I) Supply Side

Overall sector operating rates are moderate; some small and medium-sized companies reduced loads or halted production during earlier loss-making periods, causing a contraction in efficiently circulating supply. Major manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling prolonged contracts, leaving limited spot inventory available to sale and restricting the increase of spot goods in circulation. During the week, there were no major scheduled maintenance shutdowns or releases of new production capacity. Coupled with traders—who had previously stockpiled at low prices—holding back inventory rather than selling, selling pressure eased significantly, leading the supply side into a state of temporary, tight stability.

(II) Demand Side

Core demand from traditional downstream sectors—such as textile-grade nylon filament and standard modified plastics—remained sluggish. Orders to intimate apparel, synthetic leather base fabrics, and low-end engineering plastics lacked momentum; buyers showed strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, opting to small, on-demand replenishment rather than bulk purchasing.

A bright spot emerged in the manufacturing yarn sector: overseas export orders to new energy vehicle (NEV) tire cord fabric and airbag manufacturing yarn saw a steady recovery. Orders to high-end, high-value-added items remained stable, providing a floor to shipments from major manufacturers; this structural demand helped offset the weakness in traditional downstream sectors.

Downstream market sentiment was characterized by a "wait-and-see" approach. End-consumers were generally awaiting signals of price stabilization and refrained from extensive stockpiling. Consequently, the transmission of demand up the supply chain was weak, and price increases lacked the sustained pull of core demand.