Driven by both Crude Oil Prices and Maintenance Shutdowns, PTA Prices Trended Upward with Fluctuations in July

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In early July, PTA prices trended upward amidst volatility, driven by a modest rebound in crude oil and the early commencement of maintenance cycles at PX plants; prices surged further in the latter half of the month as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Concurrently, major PX facilities across China and Asia underwent extensive maintenance, causing the Asian PX operating rate to drop to a yearly low of 56.6%. Several large PTA plants also shut down simultaneously, driving the industry's operating rate down to a range of 53%–57% and leading to continued destocking of port spot inventories. Although there was a slight pullback at month-end, prices subsequently stabilized and recovered, supported by crude oil and low inventory levels. As of July 29, the spot price of PTA in East China stood at 6,017 RMB/ton, marking a 4.15% increase from the beginning of the month.

In July, major maintenance shutdowns at million-tonne-scale PX units—including those of Shenghong, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining & Chemical—tightened supply and drove up PX quotes; this was further bolstered by cost-side support stemming from US-Iran tensions. Meanwhile, major PTA units (such as those of Weilian Chemical, Honggang Petrochemical, and Zhongtai) underwent simultaneous shutdowns in July, pushing monthly output to a yearly low and causing a continuous decline in both commercial and factory raw material inventories. However, the market faced headwinds as the sector entered the traditional off-season to textiles and high-temperature summer lull; loom operating rates hovered around only 59%, polyester vegetation held high inventories of finished goods, and end-consumers showed no willingness to actively stockpile, limiting purchases to sporadic, essential needs. Compounding this pressure was the anticipated restart of PTA units—with a combined capacity of over 10 million tonnes—scheduled to late July and early August (including facilities at Fuhaichuang, Honggang Petrochemical, and Yisheng Dalian); expectations of looser supply prompted funds to lock in profits and exit the market, triggering a rapid price drop at the end of the month.

Market outlook

Looking ahead, analysts at SunSirs believe that while the summary of immediate PTA maintenance and the gradual restart of production units will slightly ease supply constraints, the slower pace of PX unit restarts means the PX shortage persists, providing continued cost support to prices. Coupled with low inventory levels following earlier destocking, a sharp price decline is unlikely. As the textile sector begins concentrated restocking of autumn/winter fabrics in late August, downstream polyester operating rates are expected to rise steadily, leading to marginal improvements in demand; while PTA supply is recovering, the development rate of downstream demand will temporarily outpace that of supply, returning the sector to a state of tight stability and likely driving a moderate upward shift in price levels. Key factors to monitor include geopolitical developments regarding Middle Eastern crude oil, the progress of PX maintenance and restarts, and the actual placement of downstream autumn/winter weaving orders.

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