China Acetone Market Weekly (June 22-June 28, 2026): U.S. and Iran ease detonated cost collapse, East China spot plunged more than 12% in a single week, the biggest drop in the year

In the past week, China's acetone market suffered the worst decline of the year. The spot price of East China plummeted from around 5750 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of more than 12%, ranking first in the list of chemical products that week. South China's decline was even more severe, with the quotation falling to 5475 yuan/ton, down 15.77 per cent. The benchmark price of acetone in the business agency was reported to 5150 yuan/ton on June 26, the listing price of Sinopec in North China was lowered to 5100 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical was lowered to 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton. The acetone price index (Jinlianchuang) was at 5073, down 77 points on the week.

The core contradiction is highly concentrated: the United States and Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding, the Strait of Hormuz navigation improvement, crude oil from more than $90 to less than $70, the cost end in two weeks completely collapsed, while the supply end adjustment speed is far behind the cost of the downward rhythm, the downstream "buy down not buy up" mentality exacerbated the price spiral.

Price, Cost and Profit: Triple Collapse Resonance

in crude oil, WTI closed the week at $69.23 a barrel (down 3.74 per cent), falling below the $70 mark for the first time since the Middle East conflict, while Brent fell to $71.99 a barrel (down 4.34 per cent). The rapid fading of the geo-risk premium is an exogenous trigger for the current round of sharp falls in chemical prices.

The raw material end of the whole line rout. The spot price of pure benzene in East China plummeted by 360 yuan to 6625 yuan/ton in a single day, the price index of pure benzene was 6497 (down 120), and the port inventory fell to 91500 tons. Shandong propylene fell to 6400-6750 yuan/ton, East China propylene 7500 yuan/ton, PDH operating rate rebounded to 72%, but propane at the cost end fell sharply, and propylene prices continued to be under pressure.

At the profit level, the profit from phenol ketone production deteriorated to -978 yuan/ton this week, down another 436 yuan/ton from last week, and the deep loss continued to expand. Jinlianchuang mid-year forum clearly will "supply and demand contradictions intensified, industry losses normalization" as the current consensus of the phenolic industry, which is the current situation of the most straightforward industry judgment. It is worth noting that despite the serious losses, the large-scale production reduction efforts of the enterprise are still limited. The main reason is that the phenol end of the phenol-ketone co-production unit still maintains a certain profit. The main units such as Zhejiang Petrochemical 1.3 million tons/year, Jiangsu Ruiheng 650000 tons/year (80% load) and Shandong Fuyu 250000 tons/year all maintain operation, the overall phenol ketone operating rate fell only slightly from 79 per cent to 77.4 per cent (down 1.5 percentage points on a weekly basis), and the supply contraction was far from enough to hedge against the contraction in demand.

Supply and demand pattern: inventory accumulation, downstream comprehensive wait-and-see

on the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone plants is 77.4 percent, although some plants are actively reduced due to losses, but the overall supply is still relatively abundant. There is a noteworthy structural differentiation in the import and export data: in May, the import volume was 29900 tons (-33.14% year-on-year), but the export volume surged to 11900 tons (+1082% year-on-year), mainly to India, Japan and Mexico-this surge in exports directly benefited from the tight international supply of goods during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With the improvement of navigation in the Strait, this window is likely to narrow, the risk of the Middle East acetone supply returning to the Chinese market is worthy of high vigilance. Jiangyin acetone port inventory accumulated to 20500 tons (1500 tons per week) this week, a small accumulation trend confirmed.

The demand side is weak across the board. The operating rate of bisphenol A is only 65.59 (down 0.25 percentage points per week), the spot price is 8500-10000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises are losing money. The PC operating rate was 72.40 (up 0.49 percentage points slightly), but the demand follow-up was weak. The operating rate of epoxy resin was as low as 43.26, and the cost transmission was not smooth. MMA East China quoted 8,900-11,000 yuan/ton, but acetone consumption was not simultaneously released. Solvents and other solvents downstream in off season. "Buy down not buy up" inertia, middlemen and end-users unanimously wait and see to hold the currency, the market transaction is extremely light.

Post-market Judgment and Operational Recommendations

the current core game is when the mismatch between the speed of cost collapse (extremely fast) and the speed of supply contraction (slow) converges. In the short term, in the context of the continued progress of the US-Iran negotiations and the risk of crude oil falling further below $65, acetone still lacks a stop signal.

Four key observation nodes are worthy of continuous tracking: the follow-up progress of the US-Iran negotiations (the largest exogenous variable); Centralized cash-out of phenolic ketone plant maintenance (if losses deepen and centralized parking is triggered, a phased price bottom may be formed); The weekly change of Jiangyin port inventory (the accumulation rate is a direct mapping of the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand); Whether the downstream bisphenol A/PC demand shows signs of seasonal warming.

For traders, the current strategy suggests maintaining very low inventory, selling and purchasing, and avoiding taking the initiative to build positions in the downward channel. Pay attention to the return of imported goods and incorporate the arrival rhythm of acetone from the Middle East into the procurement risk assessment. If the price goes further down to an absolute low level, a small amount of positions can be arranged, which just needs to be replenished, but the position and replenishment rhythm should be strictly controlled.