EIA Slashes Brent Forecast as Supply Disruptions Ease; Ship & Bunker Cuts Bunker Price Outlook Sharply

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The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), sharply cutting its Brent crude forecast as assumed oil supply disruptions ease.

In its July edition of the STEO, EIA now forecasts Brent to average $74.03/bbl in Q3 2026 and $70.00/bbl in Q4 — down from $101.12/bbl and $89.00/bbl respectively in last month's outlook.

to the full year, EIA sees Brent averaging $81.91/bbl in 2026, down $13.48/bbl from the June STEO forecast of $95.39/bbl.

The 2027 full-year forecast has also been cut significantly, from $79.39/bbl to $64.76/bbl.

The Q2 2026 Brent spot price averaged $102.93/bbl, below EIA's June forecast of $109.78/bbl.

Based on EIA's updated crude outlook, Ship & Bunker now forecasts VLSFO prices at primary bunkering ports, as tracked by the G20-VLSFO Index, to average $604/mt in Q3 2026 and $571/mt in Q4, down from $814/mt and $717/mt respectively in last month's outlook.

to the full year, the revised EIA forecast implies a G20-VLSFO average of $668/mt in 2026 and $528/mt in 2027, compared with $768/mt and $639/mt in the June outlook.

The G20-HSFO Index is forecast to average $512/mt in Q3 and $567/mt to full year 2026, while the G20-MGO Index is forecast at $930/mt in Q3 and $1,029/mt to the full year.

Current G20-VLSFO prices stand at 676/mt, with VLSFO prices at 638.5/mt in Singapore and 575.5/mt in Rotterdam.

In Singapore, the world's largest marine fuel hub by volume, Ship & Bunker forecasts VLSFO to average $566/mt in Q3 and $627/mt to full year 2026, down from $766/mt and $722/mt respectively in the June outlook.

At the the key European hub of Rotterdam the Q3 VLSFO forecast is $520/mt and $575/mt to the full year, compared with $706/mt and $666/mt last month.

Ship & Bunker publishes bunker price forecasts to every port and index it covers, based on the Brent forecasts from the monthly EIA STEO.

The forecasts are based on the average price relationship between each fuel and Brent over the previous 12 months.

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