1. overall market core pattern
this week, China's isopropyl alcohol industry chain presents cost-driven, up and down, conduction failure. The overall price center of gravity has shifted upward, and the long-short game continues to intensify. The U. S.-Iran conflict disturbed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up the geo-premium of crude oil, driving the price of propylene and acetone raw materials to rise sharply, and pulling China's isopropanol market from top to bottom. However, raw materials rose far more than finished products, industrial chain profits are seriously mismatched, losses of Chinese production enterprises continue to expand, downstream high price acceptance is low, the industry formed a negative feedback adjustment.
Significant differentiation between supply and demand: PDH plant restart to enhance the supply of propylene, China's isopropanol industry operating rate of 61%, capacity utilization rate of only 57%, the overall supply is loose. On the export side, India resumed its 7.5 per cent import tariff on isopropanol on July 16, with the previous zero tariff extension window closed, medium china's export price advantage to India recedes market sentiment has shifted from bullish to cautious wait-and-see.
2. upstream and downstream product prices and fundamentals
1. Propylene (Shandong market): This week out of the sharp rise and fall, the weekly average price of 8544 yuan/ton, up 9.61 month on month. On July 15, a one-day surge of 735 yuan/ton to 9015 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.88, and then a rapid correction, 17 fell back to 8550 yuan/ton. The regional price difference is obvious, with 8650 yuan/ton in East China and 8170-8280 yuan/ton in Northeast China. Fundamentals under significant pressure, PDH device concentrated restart increment, downstream polypropylene, octanol and other products deep losses, profit range of -155 to -365 yuan/ton, -658 to -934 yuan/ton, terminal procurement will be sluggish.
2. Acetone (East China market): After continuing the strong rise, the high level fluctuated, with a cumulative increase of 23.94 from July 1 to 17. The spot price at the weekend was 5825 yuan/ton, up 5.33 per cent on a weekly basis. The core of the price increase is due to the rising cost of propylene and pure benzene, and the loss of a single ton of phenol ketone enterprises is 633-811 yuan. Supply-side imports of goods concentrated in the port, Jiangyin port inventory rose to 20000 tons, demand-side bisphenol A just need to be stable, MIBK weekly rose 1050 yuan/ton to 9400 yuan/ton, but the terminal real follow-up is weak.
3. Isopropyl alcohol (mainstream market): Prices rose and fell, with Jiangsu market reporting 6600-6650 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 8.57 percent on a weekly basis. Guangdong 6800-6850 yuan/ton, up 8.30 percent on a weekly basis. Monthly increase of 9.29, Baichuan Yingfu data show that the average price rose by 500 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton on the 15th. Enterprise device start differentiation, multi-plant on-demand scheduling, low-load operation, late week raw materials loose, turnover light, the market into high finishing.
3. Profit, Supply and Demand and the Core Characteristics of Trade
1. Profits are fully upside down.: The whole industry chain cost conduction failure, the two mainstream processes continue to lose money. Propylene method isopropanol lost 675 yuan per ton and acetone method lost 325 yuan per ton, further expanding from last week's loss. Only electronic-grade high-purity isopropanol by virtue of high certification barriers, AI chips just need to maintain a stable profit, Formosa Plastics, Shengyi Chemical released the third quarter price increase expectations.
2. Structural differentiation between supply and demand: Raw material propylene start-up rebounded to 71%-72%, follow-up supply pressure will continue to release. Demand-side traditional coatings, pharmaceutical industry small single just need to purchase, no stock action, electronic-grade wafer cleaning demand steadily increased, become the industry's only positive support.
3. Trade and policy implications: China's isopropyl alcohol is a small net export pattern, and India is China's core export market. After the landing of the tariff policy, the export competitiveness of China's sources of goods declined in stages, superimposed on the landing of China's new version of hazardous chemicals regulations, the industry warehousing and logistics compliance costs rose, and the clearing of small and medium-sized traders accelerated.
4. outlook and operational recommendations
short-term 1-2 weeks industry chain will be maintained high shock weak pattern, propylene mainstream range 8500-8800 yuan/ton, acetone 5500-5900 yuan/ton, isopropanol 6400-6700 yuan/ton. Geo-conflict is the biggest uncertainty, the fundamentals are triple-pressed by incremental raw materials, downstream losses and export shortfalls, while low starts and low inventories hold the bottom of prices.
Operationally, production enterprises control load, keep long-term association, reduce losses; Traders insist on low inventory operations to avoid chasing high risks; downstream enterprises just need to buy general products, electronic-grade products can sign a long association to lock in the third quarter cost. Follow-up focus on tracking the geographical situation of Hormuz, PDH device restart progress, acetone port inventory and domestic device maintenance dynamics.
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