From the "low" rebound to "high" acrylic this round of rising momentum is exhausted?

1. spot market: high horizontal, evaporative environment stagnation

Judging from the recent price direction, the acrylic market has shown strong stability:

Price performance: from July 27 to August 2, the price of acrylic acid on that day has always been maintained at 8350.00 yuan/ton, with a daily rise and fall of 0.00 per cent to several consecutive days.

Raw material support: upstream propylene benchmark price of 7927.67 yuan/ton, the same remains stable, the cost end of acrylic acid to form a stable support, there is no significant collapse or push up.

The current price is in the "high" range of nearly 10 days, 20 days, 30 days and 60 days, indicating that the recent market heat is high; however in the prolonged dimension of 90 days and one year, the price is only in the "medium" or "medium low", indicating that the current high price is greater of a phased rebound or seasonal repair, has not yet broken through the prolonged pressure level.

2. spot pass technical analysis: the moving average is long, however the momentum is weakened.

Based on the systematic analysis of the business society average difference index and the moving average, the current market presents obvious technical characteristics:

EMA pattern: The 20-day EMA (cyan line) showed a steady upward direction, climbing from about 7850 yuan/ton on July 26 to above 8300 yuan/ton on August 2, indicating that the medium-term direction is still positive.

Mean difference signal: while the 10-day moving average is still above the 20-day moving average (at a "high"), indicating that it is in a long market, it is necessary to pay attention to the change in the distance between the two. If the subsequent spot price continues to move sideways and the 20-day moving average continues to move upward, resulting in a shortening of the distance between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages (I. e., "positive narrowing"), it means that the upward momentum is decaying and the market might enter an adjustment period.

3. Supply-and-demand dynamics and future market outlook

The core logic of the current acrylic market is "supply and demand game continues":

Supply side: manufacturers are willing to support prices, inventory pressure is acceptable, supporting the spot price in 8350 yuan/ton line of adherence.

Demand side: the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, the purchase is mostly based on rigid demand, lack of extensive pursuit of power, resulting in the volume of transactions difficult to match the price breakthrough, forming the current stalemate situation.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the acrylic market probability will maintain the direction of shock finishing.

Looking upwards: attention needs to be paid to whether there is a substantial improvement in downstream demand and whether the raw material propylene provides a new upward drive. If the pressure zone of 8400-8500 yuan/ton cannot be broken, the price will face the risk of falling.

Looking down: In view of the strong support of the 20-day moving average and the upward channel, even if there is a callback, the space is relatively limited. It is expected to develop support in the range of 8100-8200 yuan/ton.

Operation suggestion:

Traders are advised to pay close attention to changes in the "business community stability. If the 10-day moving average starts to turn down or down through the 20-day moving average (there is a "moving average down through" signal), should be alert to immediate downside risks, appropriate manage of inventory.

Principles and Methods of Spot Trading

(Source: Business Society)