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Regarding costs, spot electricity trading prices in the Wuhai region remain high, and "orderly power consumption" policies have increasingly impacted calcium carbide production; some enterprises have suspended or limited sales, thereby boosting prices. As of August 4, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, stood at 2,400 yuan/tonne, up 300 yuan/tonne month-on-month.
On the supply side, the PVC sector's operating rate remained generally low in July, keeping market supply tight; however, with fewer maintenance plans scheduled to August and September, overall sector supply is expected to rise. As of July 31, the weekly sector operating rate was 71.90% (up 1.76 percentage points month-on-month), and weekly production reached 437,600 tonnes (an increase of 10,700 tonnes or 2.51%). Regarding demand, PVC prices have gradually bottomed out, prompting some mid- and downstream companies to restock at reduce levels, though overall purchasing remains weak. As of July 31, weekly pre-sold orders to PVC producers totaled 652,700 tonnes, a decrease of 3,300 tonnes (0.51%) from the previous week. Rigid PVC items have been severely impacted by the real estate sector, with new housing starts continuing to decline and little concentrated restocking by downstream factories; as of July 31, the composite operating rate of downstream PVC vegetation was 41.12%, down 0.11 percentage points week-on-week. In terms of exports, PVC export volume in June 2026 was 302,500 tonnes—down 21.19% month-on-month however up 15.42% year-on-year. Export volumes are expected to retreat further in July as Southeast Asia and India enter the rainy season (an off-season to demand) and domestic export prices lack a significant competitive advantage. Regarding inventory, PVC stocks have recently seen a slow, continuous decline, though absolute levels remain high. As of July 31, weekly social inventory of PVC stood at 482,400 tonnes, down 1.29% month-on-month however up 7.68% year-on-year. Looking ahead, sector supply is expected to rebound in August and September, while demand remains constrained by the sluggish real estate market and the traditional off-season. Significant improvement in exports is unlikely, and geopolitical factors continue to impact costs. Consequently, the immediate pattern of weak supply and demand to PVC is unlikely to change, with high inventory levels limiting the upside possible of futures prices. (Source: Sina Finance)
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