China Phenol Weekly Market Analysis August 3-August 10

By SKYSEVEN Chemical Technical Team · 2026-08-10

In the past week, China's phenol market out of the typical "first rise and then fall" market, the price center of gravity quickly rose at the beginning of the week, the late week under pressure to fall back, the market before trading hot and cold.

1. Market Overview

for the past week, chinese phenol the market out of the typical "first up and then down" market, the price center of gravity at the beginning of the week quickly rushed high, late in the week under pressure to fall back, the market before trading hot and cold.

At the beginning of the week to benefit from the July phenol ketone plant centralized maintenance of the formation of the supply gap, superimposed typhoon led to the delay in the arrival of domestic trade shipments, the holders of goods to sell push up. Sinopec's East China phenol listing price has been raised by 500 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 8850 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of phenol in the business agency rose to 8775 yuan/ton on August 6, up 3.24 percent from August 3.

Entering the middle and late part of the week, the market is expected to ease the geopolitical easing of the United States and Iraq, international oil prices downward. Downstream terminal resistance to high-priced raw materials, procurement only maintain just demand, spot transactions are weak, the willingness of cargo holders to ship increased, prices fell from high levels. As of August 10, the benchmark price of phenol in the business agency fell to 8425 yuan/ton, down 0.88 percent from August 3, and most of the increase was taken back during the week.

The current round of market-driven by tight supply, switching to a game pattern of weak cost overlay off-season demand. The pre-market "August high after low" pre-judgment gradually cashed in, the follow-up market depends on the progress of the restart of the phenol ketone device, domestic trade ship arrival volume, crude oil and pure benzene cost fluctuations.

2. fundamental dismantling

(I) Price vs. Regional Spot

this week, China's phenol spot wide swing, a number of production enterprises focused on raising the factory price, Sinopec North China, Zhongsha Tianjin, Lihua Yiweiyuan, Huizhou Zhongxin and other simultaneous rise. On August 7, Jilin Petrochemical took the lead in lowering the listing, which became a sign of weakening the market.

Regional level: east China as a benchmark market, spot talks continue to loosen after the rush; south China by Huizhou Zhongxin a device parking support, the price is relatively strong; shandong, China for phenol ketone production capacity concentration, quotation range differentiation; north China demand support is weak. The four major regional spreads are maintained at $100-200/tonne, which is basically close to logistics costs and has limited cross-regional arbitrage space.

(II) Cost, Supply and Plant Commencement

pure benzene accounts for about 70% of the production cost of phenol. This week, pure benzene was strong first and then weak. On August 3, many domestic refineries lowered the ex-factory price of pure benzene by 400 yuan/ton, weakening the cost support. Propylene accounts for about 20% of the cost of phenol ketone, the first half of the shock upward, the impact on phenol is limited.

July chinese Phenolic Ketone Industry centralized maintenance, the industry started as low as 65% near, phenol production decreased significantly month-on-month. August Changchun Chemical, Longjiang chemical plant has restarted, the industry started back to 73%-74%. In terms of inventory, China's Jiangyin port phenol inventory remained at a low level of 1.9-23000 tons, constituting bottom support, but the arrival of shipments is expected to continue to suppress long-term sentiment.

In late July, phenol ketone enterprises deep losses, with the rise of phenol in early August, pure benzene fell back, phenol ketone production profits to achieve a turnaround; but the downstream industry chain profit conduction is not smooth, loss pressure to the upstream concentration.

(III) downstream demand status

july-August is the off-season of traditional demand for phenol downstream in China, and there is no centralized replenishment behavior.

Bisphenol A is the largest downstream (accounting for more than 40%), simultaneously following the rise and fall of phenol, the industry continues to suffer deep losses, the processing price difference is only 700-800 yuan/ton, and enterprises actively control the purchase volume. Liquid epoxy resin started 63%, solid epoxy resin started 43%, and demand in terminal coating and flooring industries was sluggish. PC starts to maintain 82.2 relatively stable, forming limited demand support; Phenolic resin starts only 40%-50%.

The current round of rise is driven by supply contraction, not demand-driven, high-priced raw materials triggered negative feedback downstream, is the core reason for the price fall in the late week.

3. core long/short logic

lido: China's Jiangyin port phenol inventory is at a low level during the year, August part of the phenolic ketone plant maintenance hedge increment, phenol anti-dumping policy continues to limit the impact of overseas sources, the United States and Iraq repeatedly disturbed crude oil, there are cost repair opportunities.

Negative: phenol ketone plant continued to restart, in mid-to-late August supply increment gradually released, downstream bisphenol A, epoxy resin loss, off-season to undertake capacity is insufficient, pure benzene supply and demand is expected to weaken, the port shows signs of accumulation, the market rally sentiment subsided, traders take the initiative to make profits to ship.

4. Import and Export and External Environment

china's phenol anti-dumping policy continues to be implemented, and imports from the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are restricted. Imports mainly come from Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Taiwan. Recently, domestic spot prices are high, the arbitrage window of internal and external disks is closed, and the short-term import and export circulation remains low.

The largest external variable is the geopolitical situation of the United States and Iraq, the Strait of Hormuz navigation is expected to repeatedly disturb the international crude oil, directly affecting the price of pure benzene, and then transmitted to the cost of phenol.

5. outlook and practical suggestions

in the next cycle (8.10-8.17), China's phenol is likely to maintain a weak shock. The spot operating range in East China refers to 8300-8600 yuan/ton, which does not rule out the possibility of Sinopec's listing down in East China.

Supply side: a number of sets of maintenance devices have been restarted, supply increment continued to release; demand side has not yet entered the "golden nine silver ten" stocking cycle, just need to dominate the market.

Practical Operation Guidance

downstream procurement: adhere to the just need to purchase, strict control of high-level hoarding, waiting for the price correction after the batch replenishment.

Traders: every high to reduce the library, speed up turnover, avoid the risk of falling prices.

Production enterprises: relying on profit repair flexible adjustment of load, to avoid blind large production.

Key monitoring indicators

sinopec East China phenol listing price, Jiangyin port inventory, phenol ketone operating rate, bisphenol A device negative situation, international crude oil and the United States and Iraq geo-dynamics.

Risk Warning: International crude oil fluctuations, device restart progress is not as expected, downstream negative feedback exceeds expectations, port sources concentrated in port.

Disclaimer: The report is based on publicly available industry data and is for industry reference only and does not constitute a transaction pricing recommendation.

Off-Season Weakens Domestic Demand; PVC Upside Potential Remains Capped

From January to July, excavator sales surged by more than 24% year on year. The PVC industry is undergoing concentrated maintenance: August 10 commodity market update.

Quick inquiry

Create

Inquiry Sent

We will contact you soon