Unlikely for ABS Spot Prices to See a Sustained Upward Trend in the Short Term

The domestic ABS market has recently been fluctuating within a weak range. Cost support from upstream raw materials—such as styrene and acrylonitrile—has been limited; minor fluctuations in raw material prices have failed to provide a sustained upward driver to ABS spot prices. Manufacturers continue to face pressure to move inventory. Downstream sectors—including home appliances, electronics, and automotive modification—are primarily replenishing stocks on an as-needed basis rather than engaging in extensive stockpiling; market transactions consist mostly of small orders, with spot quotes adjusted flexibly in line with actual trading. Regarding import and export trends in the first half of the year, ABS imports remained substantial, with a steady flow of overseas supplies arriving at ports; the influx of general-purpose imported ABS has supplemented domestic spot supplies. On the export front, overseas end-market demand has been uneven, with a slow manufacturing recovery in some regions limiting export development. The price spread between domestic and international markets remains narrow; while a softening of domestic spot prices tends to boost the willingness to accept export orders, the lack of explosive development in overseas demand means it cannot fully absorb the incremental domestic supply.

On the supply side, domestic ABS plant operating rates are at a moderate level. Some companies are flexibly adjusting production loads based on inventory levels, and there have been no extensive, simultaneous maintenance shutdowns. Following an earlier destocking phase, social inventory levels are currently on the high side of neutral, meaning inventory pressure has not been fully cleared. Traders remain cautious, generally aligning quotes with market conditions, with some room to price concessions on specific grades to facilitate deals. Downstream, the traditional peak season to home appliances has yet to fully kick in, and manufacturers of finished goods still face pressure to clear existing inventories, leading them to purchase ABS raw materials only as needed rather than actively building stocks. Demand to ABS applied in automotive modification remains stable with limited room to development; this overall weakness in downstream demand constrains the possible to an upward correction in ABS prices. Looking at external markets, the overseas ABS sector is similarly grappling with insufficient demand, prompting overseas producers to adjust production schedules in response to market conditions. Price fluctuations in the international market are being transmitted domestically, further influencing the sentiment of domestic traders regarding overseas procurement. Given the absence of significant cost increases and the lack of a tangible recovery in downstream demand, ABS spot prices are unlikely to embark on a sustained upward direction in the short term; instead, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, driven primarily by raw material price movements and shifts in downstream orders. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include the price trends of upstream monomers, the pace of operational recovery in the downstream manufacturing sector, and changes in the arrival volumes of imported and exported cargoes.