Global titanium dioxide market is now rising tide

The supply side is undergoing a deep reconstruction. In the past year, the global production capacity of about 600000 tons of titanium dioxide was permanently shut down. The restructuring of Panento in September 2025 led to the withdrawal of about 400000 tons of production capacity in Europe, the closure of the Dutch Boterlake (90000 tons) and the Fuzhou plant in China (50000 tons), and the selective idleness of some high-cost mining assets in South Africa and Australia. Capacity clearance has significantly improved the global supply and demand stability, and sector consultants predict that global demand to titanium dioxide will grow by 4% to 6% in 2026.

Turno's second-quarter results confirm the supply-side improvement in the repair of pricing power. The company's sales rose 19 per cent year-on-year to $0.868 billion; titanium dioxide sales surged 18 per cent year-on-year to their highest level since 2022; and zircon sand sales surged 61 per cent year-on-year. The company's CEO John Romano said that thanks to trade defense measures and structural changes in the sector, pricing continued to enhance. The company forecasts adjusted earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITDA) to reach $95 million -0.115 billion in the third quarter, with margins rebounding from 8.4 per cent to 12-14 per cent, however high costs due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East remain the biggest variable.

Turno's chief financial officer further revealed on the earnings call that some raw material supplies have been locked in through prolonged contracts to hedge against immediate price evaporative environment, while rising global operating rates from 75% in the second quarter to greater than 85% in the third quarter. This adjustment is designed to take advantage of the market gap after capacity clearance and accelerate share acquisition. Market analysts pointed out that Tino's active production scheduling strategy is squeezing competitors who are still waiting and watching, and the sector levels is expected to further increase.

Cost-end shocks constitute a rigid price support. The price of sulfur has soared due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of particulate sulfur in Zhenjiang Port has soared from 4100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 10000 yuan/ton in June, an increase of 143.9 percent. The price of sulfuric acid as the core raw material of titanium dioxide rose simultaneously, and the production cost of titanium dioxide by sulfuric acid method increased by 3000~5000 yuan per ton. Turno explicitly warned that continued evaporative environment in the Middle East would partially offset the price increase effect, that the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Mande would immediately affect global raw material transport and product exports, and that war risk premiums and bypass costs had been internalized as the norm in sector operations.

Trade barriers are reshaping the global flow of titanium dioxide. Turno regulation made it clear that trade defense measures have brought structural demand dividends to the company. International producers are collectively shifting to a "value over sales" strategy, strengthening pricing discipline through inventory regulation and asset optimization.

Turno's trade defense dividend has appeared in the regional market. Its sales in the South American market increased by greater than 25% year-on-year, and the European market was rapidly filled by Tino due to the supply gap left by the withdrawal of Pan-Energy. The company's regulation revealed that its order visibility in tariff-protected markets such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia has been extended into the fourth quarter, with customers willing to accept higher contract premiums in exchange to stable supply. This direction confirms that the restructuring of trade barriers is creating structural advantages to producers with global distribution capabilities.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, supply contraction and cost support remain the basis to prices, however there is a risk of a seasonal correction. Turno predicts a moderate decline in sales in the third quarter, in line with healthy seasonal patterns. The sector generally believes that the worst period of the titanium dioxide sector has passed, however the recovery will be a gradual process, and is completely different from the previous cycle. This round of input cost shocks caused by geopolitical conflicts rather than price increases driven by the expansion of terminal demand, making the sector The recovery presents a high degree of uncertainty. The ability of companies to maintain pricing discipline and continue to optimize their cost structure will determine the ultimate success of this cycle's recovery.