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Domestic spot prices for melamine have recently fluctuated downward, with the market's center of gravity continuing to shift lower. Data from SunSirs shows that the benchmark price for melamine stood at 6,337.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of last week; by August 18, it had retreated to 6,212.50 RMB/ton, marking a cumulative weekly decline of 1.97%.
Market Analysis
Support from the raw material side weakened
A concurrent decline in the price of urea—a key upstream raw material—has further dampened market sentiment. As of August 18, the benchmark price to urea tracked by SunSirs stood at 1,702.50 RMB/ton, down 3.13% from the 1,757.50 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month. The downward shift in raw material costs has weakened cost support to melamine, thereby widening the scope to manufacturers to adjust their prices.
Supply, Demand, and Market Sentiment
On the demand side, downstream sectors—such as plate and coating products manufacturing—are primarily purchasing on an as-needed basis; there is little appetite to extensive restocking, resulting in subdued trading activity. On the supply side, sector operating rates remain relatively stable, ensuring ample market availability and a supply-demand stability that leans toward oversupply. Bearish sentiment is intensifying, prompting holders to actively offload inventory and continuously reduce their price quotes.
Market Outlook
Overall, the urea feedstock market is trading weakly in the short term, offering little efficiently support, while downstream demand shows no immediate signs of a significant rebound. Coupled with a persistent bearish direction in technical trading, the melamine market is expected to remain evaporative with a downward bias, and there remains a risk of prices shifting reduce. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include fluctuations in upstream urea prices, adjustments to plant operating rates, and the pace of downstream demand recovery.
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