Supply game observation: China Shenghong Refining completed the planned overhaul and resumption of production.

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On August 17, Oriental Shenghong announced that the 16 million-ton/year Shenghong refining and chemical integration device, located in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, ended the 45-day planned overhaul and resumed production smoothly.

1. event profile

on August 17, the Oriental Sheng Hong announcement, located in china Jiangsu Lianyungang16 million tons/year Shenghong refining integration device, the end of 45 days of planned overhaul smoothly resumed production. The device has been put into operation since the end of 2022 and has been in operation for four consecutive years. At the end of June, it will be stopped according to the petrochemical operation cycle, and several sets of supporting devices will be stopped simultaneously.
The market tends to focus only on short-term fluctuations in spot from parking and resumption of production. Refining and chemical plan overhaul is not limited to equipment maintenance, the collection of safety operation and maintenance, capacity adjustment, technical transformation and upgrading of multiple functions, will directly disturb the Asia-Pacific region of refined oil, chemicals phase supply. This is a routine maintenance within a preset period, not a sudden failure shutdown.

Multiple Decision Logic 2. Refinery Maintenance Window

the design and operation cycle of large-scale integrated refining plant is 3-5 years, and the arrival of the cycle node must be stopped and eliminated, which is a hard safety operation and maintenance requirement. However, the actual choice of parking is the result of multiple factors.
At the hardware level, under long-term high-temperature, high-pressure and hydrogen-intensive conditions, corrosion thinning and catalyst activity attenuation will occur in towers, heat exchangers and pipelines. Flaw detection and component replacement cannot be completed online. Continuous operation will raise the risk of unplanned shutdown. Shenghong device has been in continuous operation for four years and has entered the overhaul time window.
At the commercial level, maintenance objectively causes supply contraction. Enterprises will refer to the profit level of refined oil, PX, ethylene glycol and other products, tend to implement overhaul in the weak profit stage, complete maintenance and passively reduce losses.
In addition, the supply of spare parts, construction manpower, climate and regulatory requirements also restrict the time point of maintenance. The traditional overhaul is concentrated in spring and autumn, and this selection is carried out in the summer of June-August, which belongs to the non-traditional maintenance window period.

Composition of 3. 45-day maintenance cycle

45 days for the global large-scale integrated refinery typical planned maintenance interval, the industry generally net maintenance cycle in 30-60 days. The maintenance operation covers the whole system of dynamic and static equipment, electrical instruments, environmental protection and safety.
Including basic maintenance: tower cleaning, catalyst loading and unloading, heat exchanger maintenance, pipeline thickness measurement and flaw detection, safety valve calibration to eliminate accumulated damage in long-term operation; Hidden danger management, rectification of leakage, corrosion and operation bottlenecks exposed in the previous operation cycle; At the same time, enterprises will use the parking window to simultaneously implement technical improvements such as material upgrading and energy efficiency optimization. The greater the workload of technical transformation, the longer the maintenance time.
The resumption of production of the device cannot be directly fed, and all verification processes of stand-alone commissioning, linkage commissioning and airtight test must be completed, and all indicators can be put into production only after reaching the standard.

The Realistic Impact of 4. on the Global Chemical Trade Market

maintenance phase: the whole plant parking will bring PX, styrene, ethylene glycol, refined oil supply tightening, easy to give rise to spot push up sentiment.
Production resumption stage: production capacity gradually climbing, the supply gap formed by the early maintenance of the rapid replenishment, often appear "resumption of production is short" market characteristics, is the global purchaser needs to focus on the node.
If the overhaul is synchronized with the landing process, the unit load and product yield may change after the resumption of production, which will affect the commodity supply structure in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium and long term.

Two modes of 5. refining and chemical maintenance and industry trends

one type is the centralized overhaul of the whole plant used in this project, which is carried out once every 3-5 years, and the whole device is shut down, which has a significant impact on the regional supply; the other type is the sub-device wheel repair, the wrong peak single set of maintenance, the market impact is mild, and it is mostly used for daily elimination.
The peak season for traditional maintenance is concentrated in March-May and September-November. Currently more and more china refining and chemical enterprises out of seasonal practices, follow the product profit and loss flexible arrangement of maintenance, summer maintenance cases increased, increasing the difficulty of Asia-Pacific chemical market prediction.
Shenghong's resumption of production is a normal life cycle event for large-scale refining plants. For global traders and supply chain participants, refinery maintenance is an important signal to observe the changes in supply in the Asia-Pacific phase, both to assess the short-term tightening brought about by parking, but also to guard against price reversals brought about by the return of supplies after the resumption of production.

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