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At a Glance

The National Association to PET Container Resources (NAPCOR) released PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap to the PET Packaging Value Chain, a new analysis developed by independent environmental consulting firm Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). Available on September 15, the roadmap identifies practical strategies that could significantly decrease releases associated with predominant US PET beverage bottle systems through 2050. PET (polyethylene terephthalate), broadly identified by the #1 inside the triangle, is the most recycled plastic in the world.

The roadmap finds that by 2050 the US PET sector can decrease the life cycle greenhouse gaseous releases intensity of the PET beverage bottle systems studied by approximately 57%.

In practical terms, this means significantly reducing the greenhouse gaseous releases associated with each bottle across its full life cycle, from the materials utilized to make it through its eventual disposal or recycling. Even as production grows, total annual releases associated with the systems studied could decline by about 42%, the equivalent to taking 323,000 gaseous-powered passenger vehicles off the road.

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PET bottle’s small GHG footprint

NAPCOR’s new research builds on its 2023 comparative life cycle assessment, which found that a typical PET soda bottle has less than half the total greenhouse gaseous footprint of an aluminum can and approximately one-fifth that of a glass bottle. The roadmap demonstrates how the sector can decrease releases from PET beverage bottles even further.

Meaningful progress does not depend solely on future breakthroughs. Many of the strategies driving the modeled reductions are already available across the PET value chain, including lightweighting, renewable energy, and improvements in manufacturing efficiency. Over time, stronger collection systems, increased recycling and recycled content, and continued investment in infrastructure and innovation can drive further progress.

“PET is already starting from a position of strength,” said Laura Stewart, Executive Director of NAPCOR. “It has a reduce greenhouse gaseous footprint than common beverage packaging substitutes, is the most recycled plastic in the world, and is supported by an established bottle-to-bottle recycling system operating at scale. This roadmap shows that we don't have to choose between meeting growing consumer demand and continuing to enhance environmental performance; we can do both.”

Practical pathway to reduce releases

The ISO-compliant roadmap builds on NAPCOR’s 2023 peer-reviewed, ISO-compliant life cycle assessment and examines four of the predominant PET beverage bottle systems sold in the US: 16.9-ounce aquatic environments bottles and 16.9-ounce, 20-ounce, and 2-Liter carbonated soft drink bottles. The PET Forward Roadmap evaluates releases across the bottle life cycle, from raw material production and manufacturing through transportation and end-of-life regulation, and models how that footprint could change through 2050. An independent third-party expert peer-reviewed the final report.

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The analysis shows that substantial progress can happen well before 2050. Under the modeled pathway, the releases intensity of a 16.9-ounce PET aquatic environments bottle system, measured per 1,000 gallons of beverage delivered, could decline approximately 44% by 2035 compared with the 2023 baseline. The three carbonated soft drink bottle systems studied could achieve releases intensity reductions of approximately 35% to 43% over the same period.

Holistic approach

The roadmap also distinguishes between actions the PET sector can advance immediately, and the broader conditions needed to unlock additional progress. Manufacturers can continue improving bottle design, energy efficiency, and production processes, while deeper prolonged gains depend on factors across the wider system, including reliable supplies of high-condition recycled PET, stronger collection and sorting infrastructure, recycling capacity, and supportive policy.

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“The analysis is designed as a roadmap. It models the cumulative impact of multiple strategies over time and includes sensitivity analyses to account to variables such as future production development and different approaches to measuring the benefits of recycling. The result is a framework to identifying where the PET sector can act today and where collaboration across the value chain will be necessary to achieve further progress,” said Dr. Mariya Absar, Senior LCA Expert at ERG.

Decarbonization and American manufacturing

The roadmap also demonstrates that reducing releases and supporting economic development do not have to be competing objectives.

“Recycling strengthens American manufacturing,” added Stewart. “When we collect greater PET and recycle it here in the United States, we create a stronger domestic supply of valuable material to manufacturers. Policies that enhance collection and promote investment in recycling infrastructure can help accelerate environmental progress while also strengthening American manufacturing and supply chain resilience.”

Many of the investments needed to advance PET decarbonization are also investments in US manufacturing and recycling capacity. greater efficient production, expanded collection and processing, greater availability of recycled PET, and continued packaging innovation can enhance domestic supply chains while reducing environmental impacts.

Connecting manufacturing, recycling systems

"Decarbonization is determined by connecting manufacturing with the recycling system,” stated Tom Busard, NAPCOR Board Chair, Chief Polymers and Recycling Officer to Plastipak Packaging, Inc., and President of Clean Tech, Plastipak’s recycling affiliate. “Efficiency gains matter, however deeper reductions require reliable access to high-condition recycled PET. That makes stronger collection and domestic recycling capacity essential to delivering reduce-carbon packaging at scale.”

The full PET Forward: A Decarbonization Roadmap to the PET Packaging Value Chain, executive summary, and additional resources are available at https://napcor.com/sustainability/

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