Tracking Cost Fluctuations, PTA Prices Rose Initially and Then Fell in September

According to data from the SunSirs spot market platform, PTA spot prices strengthened in early September, driven by cost-side support. From mid-to-late September onwards, multiple PTA units—including those of Hailun Petrochemical and Zhongtai Petrochemical—successively restarted and ramped up operating rates; consequently, the sector's operating rate steadily rose and market supply gradually increased. The market shifted from the earlier destocking phase to a period of slight inventory accumulation, causing spot prices to retreat from their highs. As of September 24, the benchmark spot price to PTA in East China stood at 7,147 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

International crude oil prices initially rose before falling; as of September 23, the settlement price to the November contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $92.16 per barrel, while the settlement price to the December contract of Brent crude oil futures was $95.41 per barrel. Persistent geopolitical conflicts reduced shipping efficiency through key straits, and the resulting tightening of physical supply provided a solid floor to prices, driving an upward direction. However, starting mid-month, market optimism regarding a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and a recovery in crude oil supplies completely reversed the earlier trading sentiment driven by supply fears; consequently, the prices of both benchmark crudes fell sharply in tandem, hitting their lowest levels since September 9, as the energy sector weakened overall.

From the perspective of PTA supply, the restart of units undergoing maintenance in September is largely complete, and domestic PTA production is steadily ramping up. Processing margins remain at relatively reasonable levels, further incentivizing production; the possible to continued supply development exerts downward pressure on prices.

Furthermore, the demand side has have become the key factor constraining upward price momentum. The traditional "Golden September" peak season to textiles has underperformed; downstream polyester producers are grappling with losses, leading many vegetation to implement production cuts and maintenance, with the aggregate operating rate hovering around 74%. Weaving companies in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have seen limited order follow-through, as downstream buyers focus primarily on essential needs with little appetite to proactive restocking. With no significant surge in end-user consumption, demand is insufficient to drive a sustained rise in PTA prices, and downstream stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday has remained modest.

Looking ahead, PTA is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern characterized by cost support and supply-demand constraints. While crude oil and PX feedstock costs provide a floor, the continued recovery of supply and weaker-than-expected demand limit upward momentum; barring a sharp surge in crude oil prices, a sustained, strong rally is unlikely to materialize.