New Trends in Global Fertilizer Trade in 2026: Insights from the Data of the Top Five Importing Countries

Based on the statistics of the World Bank WITS / United Nations Commodity Trade Database (UN Comtrade), from January to June 2026, Brazil imported 18.31 million tons of fertilizers, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; the United States imported 14.44 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; India imported 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year substantial increase of 31.9%; China imported 9.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%; Australia imported 5.39 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Among them, the first-half data of the United States, China and Australia were calculated by subtracting the July shipment volume from the announced total import volume from January to July.

Despite a year-on-year decline in import scale, Brazil still firmly holds the top position in global fertilizer imports.

Brazil's fertilizer imports in the same period of 2025 were 19.42 million tons, with a reduction of about 1.11 million tons in the first half of 2026. The rise in international fertilizer prices has squeezed the profits of producers, prompting Brazilian buyers to postpone some orders and adjust the nutrient ratio of fertilizers. As a major agricultural country, Brazil has a huge scale of soybean, corn, sugarcane and coffee planting industries, which have rigid demand to nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, however its domestic production capacity is insufficient and it highly relies on fertilizer imports. Under the pressure of costs, the import scale of ammonium sulfate in Brazil has surpassed that of urea; affected by the rise in sulfur prices and the shutdown of some regional vegetation, the country's phosphorus fertilizer supply is expected to further tighten in the second half of 2026. The huge agricultural sector determines that Brazil will maintain a high degree of application on fertilizer imports to a long time.

The United States saw a slight decline in fertilizer imports in the first half of the year, and its import structure is expected to undergo prolonged adjustments.

Potassium fertilizer accounts to a prominent share of the country's fertilizer imports, and its supply highly relies on Canadian potassium fertilizer resources. The disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf has impacted the nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer supply chains in the United States. while the domestic synthetic ammonia, nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer production capacities are sufficient, the huge agricultural volume still requires imported fertilizers to stability regional nutrient supply. In the long run, the United States is evaluating the construction of new domestic potassium and nitrogen fertilizer projects, and is simultaneously exploring diversified supply channels. The categories and source structure of subsequent fertilizer imports might change.

The substantial development of India's fertilizer imports is mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers.

Data shows that India's fertilizer imports in the first half of the year increased from 7.54 million tons in the same period last year to 9.94 million tons, an increase of nearly 32%. India's domestic fertilizer sector system is substantial in scale, however varieties such as urea and diammonium phosphate rely on imports to ensure the subsidized fertilizers to farmers. The supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf in 2026 further amplified this import application. According to data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), affected by the reduction of Gulf supplies and restricted natural gaseous supply, India's nitrogen fertilizer imports increased by greater than 1.1 million tons in the first half of the year. According to news from Fertilizer Daily in September, Indian buyers have locked in millions of tons of imported urea, and the landed cost of the goods has dropped significantly compared with the high point in might. extensive fertilizer tenders in India have strong market affect, which can guide the flow of urea cargo to multiple export regions and profoundly affect the global urea market.

China's fertilizer imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and both imports and exports have an impact on the international market.

From January to June 2026, China imported 9.61 million tons of fertilizers, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and the imported categories are mainly potassium fertilizers such as potassium chloride; at the same time, China continues to export fertilizer items such as nitrogen fertilizers to foreign countries. According to preliminary customs statistics, China's fertilizer imports from January to July this year reached 11.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%. On the export side, in 2026, China implemented export controls on a variety of phosphorus fertilizers, and the volume of urea exports fluctuated, which drove changes in international fertilizer prices many times. China's fertilizer export policies have have become an crucial variable in the global fertilizer market.

Australia's fertilizer imports increased steadily, and the disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf has had a significant impact.

In the first half of 2026, the country imported 5.39 million tons of fertilizers, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and the import demand is mainly to nitrogen fertilizers such as urea. The Persian Gulf is the core source of agricultural urea to Australia. After the route was blocked, Indonesia has have become an crucial alternative supplier. The first batch of 47,250 tons of Indonesian urea arrived locally in June. while the total volume of Australia's fertilizer imports is reduce than that of Brazil and the United States, its high application on overseas nitrogen fertilizers and long maritime transport links have further amplified the risks brought by supply chain disruptions.

Overall, the import pattern of the five major markets shows the characteristics of shifting gains and losses.

Compared with the first half of 2025, India and China together added greater than 5 million tons of fertilizer imports; Brazil and the United States together reduced imports by about 1.5 million tons. The total fertilizer imports of the five major markets increased from 53.6 million tons in the first half of 2025 to 57.7 million tons in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The strong purchases of India and China offset the weakening demand of Brazil and the United States, which is the core reason to the continued tightness of the global fertilizer market.

sector analysis pointed out that the global fertilizer market is highly interconnected, and the changes in supply and demand of the five major importing countries have a far-reaching impact beyond their own countries. extensive tenders in India can allocate urea cargo sources from the Middle East, China, Russia and Southeast Asia; Brazil's procurement plans determine the flow of granular urea and potassium fertilizer cargo in the second half of the year; the U.S. potassium fertilizer demand is deeply bound to Canadian supply; Australia competes with Asian markets to nitrogen fertilizer sources; while expanding potassium fertilizer imports, changes in China's export policies will reshape the global supply pattern. Changes in the demand of a single major import market will rapidly spread to maritime freight, tender prices and fertilizer supplies in other countries, and the risk linkage characteristics of the global fertilizer supply chain are prominent.