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The domestic polyethylene (PE) units, a key chemical raw material, are undergoing a reshuffle of their supply landscape. On one hand, old production capacity is concentrated in shutdowns and maintenance, which temporarily supports tight supply; on the other hand, new production capacity is looming large, with a significant increase in output imminent in November.
I. Multiple units shut down to maintenance, leading to a temporary tightening of supply
According to market monitoring, polyethylene units of many domestic petrochemical companies are currently in a shutdown or maintenance status, as detailed below:
In the short term, the concentrated shutdowns and output reduction of the above units have provided some support to the domestic polyethylene spot supply, keeping the market's expectation of tight supply and giving prices a phased boost.
II. New production capacity to be put into operation in November, with supply expansion pressure approaching
However, the supply support brought by maintenance is time-vulnerable. According to the commissioning plan, multiple new units are ready to go online:
•China Coal Shaanxi Yulin Phase II 300,000 tons/year low-density unit;
•Sinochem Quanzhou Gule Port 400,000 tons/year low-density unit and 600,000 tons/year full-density unit.
All the above units are scheduled to be put into operation in November.
III. Market Outlook: Intensified Game Between Supply and Demand
Currently, relying on maintenance can still support the tight supply situation; however in November, with the commissioning and output expansion of these substantial units, domestic supply will likely increase significantly. If downstream demand fails to pick up prompt, supply-side pressure could push prices back to their original level at any time. The subsequent market will continue to track the restart rhythm of maintenance units and the actual commissioning and output progress of new units.
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