Costs Rose then Fell, and Acrylic Acid Trended Upward with Fluctuations

According to data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic acrylic acid market exhibited a sustained, fluctuating upward direction this week. The overall price level shifted significantly higher, reaching a recent peak early in the week.

Price Performance: On November 2, the benchmark price to acrylic acid, as tracked by SunSirs, reached 9,500.00 RMB/ton—a single-day increase of 1.42%. Compared to the price of 8,983.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week (October 27), this represents a cumulative rise of approximately 516.67 RMB/ton over the week, an increase of nearly 5.75%. Even after a brief period of stagnation (0.00% change) on November 1, the market has maintained strong upward momentum.

Dynamics Across the sector Chain

Upstream Raw Materials: Propylene prices rose before falling back, leading to a marginal weakening of cost support.

Propylene Market Trends: As the primary raw material to acrylic acid, propylene's performance this week has contrasted with that of acrylic acid itself. On November 3, the benchmark price to propylene, as tracked by SunSirs, stood at 11,797.67 RMB/ton—a decline of 1.69% from the beginning of the month (12,001.00 RMB/ton).

Impact Analysis: The retreat in propylene prices following an early-month surge has, to some extent, eased cost pressures on acrylic acid producers. While a decline in raw material costs typically exerts downward pressure on the prices of finished items, acrylic acid prices rose this week instead of falling. This suggests that improvements in market supply-demand fundamentals or an uptick in downstream demand—rather than cost-push factors—have been the primary drivers. This "divergent" direction is helping to restore production margins to acrylic acid manufacturers.

Market Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

The acrylic acid market is currently in a strong upward direction, with moving averages well-aligned in a bullish configuration. Having just broken through the 9,500 RMB/ton round-number mark, the market is likely to maintain its upward momentum in the near term.

Risk Warning: Despite the strong immediate momentum, please be mindful of the following risks:

1. Risk of a pullback from highs: Various immediate indicators are currently at "high" levels. Should downstream acceptance of high-priced supplies wane, a period of evaporative environment and consolidation—driven by profit-taking—might ensue.

2. Drag from raw materials: The sustained decline in propylene prices could eventually filter through to the acrylic acid market, limiting its possible to further gains.

Operational Recommendations:

to inventory holders: The current direction is positive, so you might continue to hold your positions. However, keep a close watch on trading volume; if you observe a scenario where volume increases however prices fail to rise further, consider reducing your holdings during price rallies.

to downstream consumers: Given that prices are currently at a three-month high and continuing to climb, it is advisable to limit purchases to essential needs only and prevent chasing the market higher. You might consider replenishing inventory once prices pull back toward the 5-day moving average.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data to over 200 commodities to nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com to subscription.