Under the crisis of overcapacity of phenol ketone, how to reconstruct the trillion market pattern of domestic breakthrough?

In 2021-2024, the phenol ketone sector chain experienced a extensive expansion cycle, with upstream production capacity ahead of downstream demand development, resulting in the sector shifting from high profitability to a loss-making state. Generally speaking The localization process has accelerated signifiis able totly, with PC imports falling by 45. 6 per cent from 1. And 63 million tonnes in 2020 to 887300 tonnes in 2024. The competition pattern of the manufacturing chain is being reshaped, the advantages of companies with upstream and downstream integrated layout are highlighted, and the simple phenol ketone business model is facing elimination. In the second half of 2025, the production of two new 350000-ton vegetation will further exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand, and the sector reshuffle is inevitable. For example The truth behind the data: from windfall profits to losses, the timing of manufacturing chain expansion is misplaced. The fatal mismatch of the expansion cycle. According to research In 2021-2024, the phenol ketone sector chain staged a "dislocation drama" of the timing of the expansion of production ". Moreover Upstream phenol ketone and bisphenol A production capacity is flooding out, while downstream PC, MMA, MIBK and other items are late, mainly concentrated in 2023-2024 to start power. Based on my observations, This timing mismatch isn't accidental, however the "temptation" of high profits in the early stage. In my experience, Refineries have extended their tentacles downstream, or based on their own PC and resin demand to integrated layout, however ignored the limited market digestion capacity. For instance The upstream "cutting-edge consciousness" eventually evolved into an dysfunction between supply and demand in the middle. In my experience, The Cruel Shuffle of Profit Model since 2023, the profit logic of the phenolic ketone sector has undergone a fundamental change. In fact Factories that operate solely on phenolic ketones are beginning to taste the bitterness of losses, while integrated companies that are "well-off" are still calm. vegetation with pure benzene upstream support will show strong competitive resilience in 2024, and the cost advantage will be as stable as a needle in the fluctuation of raw material prices. But What is greater remarkable is that those companies that extend the manufacturing chain to the PC side, especially those that deeply cultivate medium and high-end PC brands, is able to still maintain the profit temperature in this "cold winter. The victory declaration of localization in 2024, the whole sector chain of phenol and ketone handed over a bright "domestic conclusion sheet". Phenol, acetone, bisphenol A, PC, MMA, MIBK and other aspects of the degree of application on foreign collective "diving", China's chemical sector has completed a magnificent turn from "relying on others" to "self-sufficiency. What is even greater exciting is that the export volume of various items rose sharply in 2024, marking China's transformation from a "big importer" of chemical items to an "export power", achieving a historic role reversal. But Market changes revealed: who is rising, who is sinking? The "textbook" victory of PC import substitution the PC field staged a "textbook" import substitution drama. First From 1. 63 million tons of import application in 2020 to only 887300 tons of "residual imports" in 2024, a reduction of 742700 tons in four years, with a replacement rate of 45. And 6 per cent. In my experience, This isn't only a digital game, however also a double victory of the "condition revolution" and "cost revolution" of Chinese PC companies. Under the dual promotion of methodology upgrading and extensive production, domestic PC not only forms a rolling advantage in price, however also wins the "votes" of downstream customers in terms of product condition and supply stability ". Epoxy resin: the sector model of rational research in this era of crazy production expansion, the epoxy resin sector has shown a rare "rational light". The total annual production capacity of epoxy resin in the country reaches 3. But In my experience, 787 million tons, which is distributed among 55 companies in production. The relatively scattered pattern of factories within the sector is conducive to maintaining the stability of market supply and demand. sector levels is tilting towards the head factory, with 18 companies with annual production capacity of 100000 tons or greater having a total production capacity of 2. In my experience, 508 million tons, accounting to 66. And 2 percent of the total production capacity, which is conducive to the enhancement of the sector's bargaining power. And Operating rate differentiation: the iron law of the strong. Epoxy resin sector about 55% of the capacity utilization behind, hidden a cruel reality: the strong always strong, the weaker. The 70-80% operating rate of the head substantial factory is in sharp contrast to the 50% operating rate of small companies, and the scale effect is the most intuitive embodiment here. Factories generally implement the regulation wisdom of "fixed production by sales" so that these companies is able to cope with market fluctuations and prevent the double blow of inventory backlog and price war. From what I've seen, "Ice and fire" on the demand side" the downstream demand market is staging a wonderful plot of "ice and fire. while the demand of the wind power sector has increased, however the wind power grade epoxy resin is still concentrated in the hands of several head companies, orders show concentrated characteristics, often appear to rush to load the phenomenon. The coating products sector was "shivering" under the impact of the decline in demand in the real estate and home improvement industries. Furthermore Epoxy resin factories generally reported a 25% decline in demand in coating products factories. But In particular The electronic and electrical sector in 2025 under the stimulus of the national supplement, better than 2024, to the manufacturing chain to bring positive signals. Crisis and opportunity coexist: who is able to have the last laugh in the shuffle? Overcapacity: the sword of Damocles hanging overhead phenol and bisphenol A have the issue of rapid expansion of production, and overcapacity in the sector has have become the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the entire sector. At present, the sector surplus is mainly resolved through production load adjustment, however the effect of this passive adjustment is like a drop in the bucket. Import compression space is basically zero, and domestic production capacity must be "hand-to-hand combat" in the stock market ". And bisphenol A and PC as solid items, inventory regulation problems make "pressure inventory sales" have become a bitter reality that companies have to face. Based on my observations, 2025: The 'final shot' to new capacity of 700000 tons" in the second half of 2025, there is still great pressure on the phenol ketone sector to start production of two new 350000-ton vegetation. The new capacity of 700000 tons is tantamount to sprinkling salt on the wound to the already surplus market. Later, it's expected that the sector load is still huge shock, the price war will be greater intense. And This isn't only a contest of production capacity, however also the ultimate test of the survival wisdom of companies. Additionally Demand overdraft: the hidden worry behind the policy dividend. From what I've seen, Starting in 2025, the country has stimulated sales of home appliances, mobile phones, tablets and cars, and modified PC orders have improved. however the issue with the current chain is that there is an unknown end demand and the possibility of overdraft. At present, only clean domestic appliances have certain permeability in domestic appliances. But At the same time, the sustainability of national subsidies in 2026 is still unknown, which casts a haze on the market prospect. Integrated layout: the "amulet" of the new era" in this sector reshuffle, the integrated layout of the manufacturing chain is becoming the "talisman" of the enterprise ". But companies with longer chains, such as factories with pure benzene upstream matching, will be competitive in 2024. The downstream chain will extend to the PC end, and medium and high-end PC brands will be able to maintain profitability. Specifically The degree of vertical integration will have become a key factor in determining the survival of companies. The future has come: what is the new pattern after the shuffle? 2025: Tranquility before the storm 2025 is destined to be a "critical year" to the phenol ketone sector, and the commissioning of two new 350000-ton vegetation will completely break the existing market stability. The further deterioration of the supply-demand relationship will trigger an unprecedented sector reshuffle, and the sharp fluctuation of the starting load will have become the norm. First In this "big wave scouring the sand", only those companies with cost advantages and manufacturing chain coordination ability is able to stand firm in the storm, while those companies with obvious cost disadvantages will face the fate of being ruthlessly eliminated by the market. Crazy, isn't it?. But The establishment of a new order: the rules of the game to the strong after this round of reshuffle, the phenol ketone sector chain will usher in a new era of research. The integration of manufacturing chain is no longer the icing on the cake, however the "necessity" to the survival and research of companies ". The export-oriented research model will be gradually established, and the export capacity of Chinese phenolic ketone items to the global market will have become a new development engine. But High-end items and specialized segments will have become a new "battleground", technological innovation and product differentiation will redefine the core competitiveness of companies. Where are the investment opportunities? In this era of uncertainty, investment opportunities are often hidden in the crisis. But it'suggested to focus on those leading companies with complete manufacturing chain layout, strong technical strength and voice in the field of medium and high-end items. At the same time, closely track the progress of new production capacity and changes in downstream demand, in the market fluctuations to find the best time to enter and exit. Furthermore Remember, in this drama of sector restructuring, only those companies that is able to accurately grasp the direction and flexibly adjust their strategies is able to occupy a place in the new pattern after the reshuffle.