Zhenhai Refining 400000 tons of acrylonitrile plant successfully put into operation, or will reshape the global supply pattern

sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical 400000 Tons/Year Acrylonitrile Plant was successfully started recently, marking the official operation of the world's largest single-series acrylonitrile production plant. The device adopts a complete set of S-ANT technology independently developed by Shanghai Petrochemical Research Institute. Compared with the international mainstream 20-300000-ton device, the production capacity has increased by 33%-100, setting a new industry record.

The new generation technology package has achieved a major breakthrough in key indicators: the catalyst yield is increased by 2-3 percentage points compared with traditional technology, the energy consumption per unit product is reduced by 8%-12%, and the waste water and exhaust gas emissions have reached the industry-leading level. This not only marks that China has reached the world's advanced level in acrylonitrile production technology, but also lays a solid foundation for subsequent technology output and industrial expansion. The successful commissioning of the plant broke the foreign technology monopoly and provided important support for the independent development of China's chemical industry.

The commissioning of the new unit of Zhenhai Refinery will significantly change the supply pattern of acrylonitrile in China and even the world. At present, China's annual consumption of acrylonitrile is about 250-3 million tons, and the import dependence is between 20%-30%. After the new 400000 tons of production capacity is put into operation, China's total acrylonitrile production capacity will exceed 3 million tons, and the import dependence is expected to drop to 15%-20%. This will reduce dependence on traditional suppliers such as Japan and South Korea, and imports are expected to drop by 10%-15%.

From a global perspective, the proportion of China's new capacity in the global total capacity will be further increased, enhancing China's voice in the international acrylonitrile market. The economies of scale of large-scale installations will dilute fixed costs and enhance product competitiveness. On the basis of meeting domestic demand, it is also expected to increase export earnings. This change in supply pattern will redefine the flow of global acrylonitrile trade, and China is expected to gradually shift from a net importer to a basically self-sufficient country.

As the soul of carbon fiber and the backbone of ABS plastic, the stable supply of acrylonitrile is very important to the development of downstream industries. ABS plastics, as the largest consumer sector (accounting for about 40%), will directly benefit from the stability of raw material supply and cost reduction, ABS prices are expected to return to a reasonable range, the profitability of related enterprises is expected to increase by 5%-8%. For the rapid development of carbon fiber industry, although the proportion is relatively small (8%-10%), the security of raw material supply is of great significance to this strategic emerging industry, which will support domestic carbon fiber to reduce import dependence and accelerate industrial development. Other downstream products, such as adiponitrile, will also benefit from a stable supply of feedstock. From the perspective of business opportunities, the advantages of large-scale production will bring long-term and stable supply contract opportunities for industrial chain enterprises, lower raw material procurement costs for downstream enterprises, and create new business opportunities for technology output and industrial integration.

in the short term, the plant capacity will gradually reach the design capacity within 6-12 months, the domestic supply and demand pattern will be significantly improved, and the price trend is expected to be relatively stable. In the medium term 3-5 years, China is expected to achieve basic self-sufficiency in acrylonitrile, technical advantages will promote the construction of more large-scale devices, and downstream high-end applications will usher in rapid development. In the long run, with the growth of demand for carbon fiber and high-end chemicals, the industry will develop in the direction of high-end and specialization, and Chinese enterprises are expected to occupy a more important position in the global market by virtue of their technology and cost advantages.

However, we also need to pay attention to potential risks: new production capacity may intensify market competition, price fluctuations of upstream raw materials such as propylene will affect profit stability, increasingly stringent environmental requirements may increase operating costs, and changes in the international trade environment may also affect export business. It is recommended to focus on acrylonitrile producers with technical advantages and cost control capabilities, as well as investment opportunities for downstream ABS, carbon fiber and other companies that benefit from a stable supply of raw materials.