Isopropyl alcohol industry chain weekly report (May 11-May 18, 2026): demand-led decline, acetone inventory low formation of differentiation

this week, China's isopropanol industry chain as a whole under pressure, the price center of gravity continued to move down. Despite the strong rebound in international crude oil due to geopolitical risks, the transmission of the cost side is blocked, and weak end demand has become the core variable that dominates the price trend.

this week, the three major varieties of the industrial chain are down, but the decline is obvious differentiation.

propylene, the mainstream spot transaction price in Shandong, China was lowered from 9400 yuan/ton to 9205 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down about 195 yuan/ton, or 2.07 per cent. At the beginning of the week, Shandong HSBC Petrochemical took the lead in lowering the ex-factory price of 100 yuan/ton, releasing the signal of loose supply and demand, and the market immediately followed. The price of East China port remained at 9450-9500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shandong and East China was about 245 yuan/ton, higher than the historical average.

acetone, the benchmark price of the business agency on May 15 was 7600 yuan/ton, down 1.49 from 7715 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zhuochuang Information data show that the national average price dropped from 7727 yuan/ton on May 11 to 7620 yuan/ton on May 15, a weekly drop of about 107 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that China's acetone port inventory fell from 16000 tons to 14000 tons, down 12.5 percent on the week and 41.7 percent on the month, which is at a historical low for the same period, supporting prices and being the smallest decline among the varieties on Wednesday.

isopropanol, the most significant decline. Business News data show that the benchmark price on May 13 was 8100 yuan/ton, down 7.07 from 8716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The quotation range in Shandong is 7925-8200 yuan/ton. On May 15, the ex-factory quotation of Lihua Yiwei Chemical Co., Ltd. stabilized at 8000 yuan/ton, and the market showed signs of stopping the decline for a short time. Isopropyl alcohol fell 7.07 per cent on the month, far more than propylene (down about 2 per cent on the month) and acetone (down 1.49 per cent on the month), indicating that the current market is dominated by demand-side suppression rather than cost-side driving.

supply and demand pattern: supply-side marginal repair, demand-side continued contraction

, China's PDH plant gradually returned, and the operating rate of the propylene industry increased by 2 percentage points month-on-week to 67%, but still at a low level. The operating rate of the acetone-phenol co-production plant was 84%, flat on a week-on-week basis, down 7.2 percentage points month-on-month. The main production enterprises of isopropyl alcohol maintain normal production, and some small and medium-sized enterprises take the initiative to reduce the load due to weak demand. Stocks in propylene plants increased slightly to 52910 tons, up 2.88 per cent on a weekly basis, reflecting a slow recovery in supply and insufficient follow-up in demand.

the demand side, solvents, coatings, inks and other traditional areas into the seasonal off-season, procurement volume decreased significantly, the market showed a "price without market" state. Demand in the pharmaceutical sector is relatively robust but at a slower pace, with more ready-to-use strategies. The demand for electronic grade isopropanol (purity ≥ 99.99%) will remain prosperous with the shift of global semiconductor production capacity to mainland China, with an annual compound growth rate of 12% and a spot price of about 11600 yuan/ton. However, the volume of this market segment accounts for only 5%-10%, which has limited supporting effect on the industrial market. The overall pattern of differentiation is "weak in industrial grade and strong in electronic grade.

-cost profit: midstream isopropanol profit sharply compressed

crude oil, Brent crude oil rose from $101.29/barrel to $109.26/barrel this week, up $7.97 per week (+7.87 per cent), with the core driver coming from the impasse in US-Iran negotiations and a sharp drop in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to about 20 per cent of normal levels. The high level of crude oil is expected to form a long-term bottoming of chemical prices, but the supply and demand of propylene and acetone itself is loose, and the cost transmission capacity is limited.

, the gross profit of PDH propylene is about 800-900 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit of phenol and ketone co-production dropped to near the break-even line. The theoretical profit of isopropyl alcohol (propylene water legal) dropped by more than 300 yuan/ton from the end of April. The current estimate is only about 50-150 yuan/ton. Some high-cost production capacity is facing loss pressure.

: Middle East Disturbances Affect Arrival

, affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, China's acetone imports have shrunk, which is directly related to the sharp decline in port inventories. Propylene imports were also affected by the reduction in Middle East sources, but the return of domestic PDH and the stability of U.S. propane exports (April year-on-year +2.66) made up the gap to some extent. Isopropyl alcohol exports are dominated by Southeast Asia and South America, and the growth in demand for high-purity exports to semiconductor manufacturing regions continues to optimize the export structure.

the next 1-2 weeks, China's isopropanol industry chain is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. Price center of gravity judgment: propylene Shandong price may test 9000 yuan/ton support, with an operating range of 9,000-9,300 yuan/ton; Acetone is expected to be 7500-7700 yuan/ton due to relatively low inventory. Isopropyl alcohol still has room for downward movement, with an estimated 7700-8100 yuan/ton.

operation suggestion: traders should maintain low inventory operation, mainly to reduce the risk of going to the warehouse; Buyers with low acetone inventory can moderately just need to replenish the warehouse. Isopropyl alcohol procurement is recommended for a small number of times, and the quotation trend of large factories such as Lihua Yiweiyuan is closely followed. The biggest uncertainty comes from geopolitical variables-if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases substantially, cost support may be further loosened, and if the conflict escalates again, the oil price pulse will lead to a short-term rebound in chemicals.