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Over the past week, the PA6 market has exhibited an accelerating downward trend, with the magnitude of the decline widening. According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for PA6 stood at 12,866.67 RMB/ton on May 19; by May 20, it had dropped to 12,733.33 RMB/ton—a single-day decline of 1.04%. On May 21, the price dipped further to 12,566.67 RMB/ton, causing the cumulative gain over the preceding 90 days to narrow from 19.50% to 16.72%. Given that prices were approximately 13,400 RMB/ton at the beginning of May, the cumulative decline during this current downturn has reached approximately 6.2%.
II. Analysis of Causes
From the cost perspective, caprolactam—the upstream raw material—serves as the most critical cost support to PA6; however, it has been consistently weakening throughout this month. Data from SunSirs indicates that the benchmark price to caprolactam slid steadily from 12,887.50 RMB/ton at the start of might to 12,162.50 RMB/ton on might 22, representing a cumulative decline of 5.63%.
From the supply and demand perspective, operating rates at PA6 production facilities have remained consistently high. Coupled with the concentrated discharge of new production capacity in the preceding period, overall supply remains ample. Manufacturers demonstrate a strong willingness to offload inventory, and actual transaction prices are generally trading below quoted prices. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream textile and chemical fiber sectors remains persistently sluggish; these sectors exhibit very low tolerance to high-priced raw materials, limiting their purchasing activities to strictly "as-needed" replenishment rather than engaging in concentrated bulk buying. Consequently, the overall trading atmosphere in the market remains cautious and bearish, perpetuating a pattern characterized by weakness on both the supply and demand sides.
III. immediate Outlook
In the short term, the domestic PA6 market is highly likely to continue its pattern of low-level fluctuation and weak consolidation. There are currently no clear catalysts to a market rebound; while the overall downside possible appears limited, there is insufficient momentum to drive a recovery. Negative factors currently dominate the overall market; only demand-driven transactions at reduce price levels are likely to provide slight support to prices. The market is highly likely to maintain a weak, stable, and fluctuating direction, though the possibility of localized price concessions and downward adjustments cannot be ruled out.
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