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Recently, with ethylene glycol prices remaining high and the operating rates of domestic plants rising, the diethylene glycol market has fluctuated at high levels and undergone a slight downward correction amidst increased supply. On September 8, mainstream spot prices in East China closed at 9,750 RMB/ton (up 15 RMB/ton), while spot prices in South China closed at 9,350 RMB/ton (down 10 RMB/ton).
Supply side: Import prospects are uncertain due to the impact of the Middle East situation on strait passage; negotiations regarding expected supply from the restart of a Taiwan-based plant in September are underway; domestic producers Shenghong and Hengli have raised operating rates due to improved margins and are selling to the market, resulting in an overall increase in supply to September. Statistics show that as of September 7, port inventories of diethylene glycol (DEG) in East China stood at 3,300 tonnes, a decrease of 1,000 tonnes from the previous period. During the current period (September 8–14), scheduled arrivals at Zhangjiagang total 3,130 tonnes, comprising cargoes from South Asia and long-haul origins; there are no scheduled arrivals of domestically produced material this week.
Demand side: Polyester operating rates continued to weaken, dropping to around 75%; UPR operating rates hovered near 30%, with attention focused on follow-through in downstream restocking. Statistics show that as of September 3, the average weekly operating rate of domestic unsaturated resin vegetation was 32.5%, indicating a decline in overall capacity utilization compared to the previous period. Regarding terminal shipments, the total volume from the Yangtze International and Vopak storage areas at major East China ports was 1,346 tonnes between August 31 and September 6, averaging approximately 192 tonnes per day; on September 7, total shipments from the two Zhangjiagang storage areas amounted to 66 tonnes, a decrease of 126 tonnes from the previous week's daily average.
Cost side: Continued instability in US-Iran relations and persistent concerns over supply risks have driven up international oil prices.
Market Outlook: In the short term, the situation between the US and Iran has shifted, and crude oil prices are driving EG (ethylene glycol) to trade firmer; however, supply expectations are gradually easing as domestic production facilities (including those in Taiwan) ramp up operating rates. Prices are shifting focus from macro-driven expectations to fundamentals, with the market primarily undergoing position reduction and a shedding of risk premiums, pointing toward a likely downward price adjustment.
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