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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since the beginning of September (as of 15:00 on September 18), domestic methanol quotes at East China ports have risen steadily from 3,250 RMB/ton to approximately 3,983 RMB/ton; during this period, the price surged by 22.56%, marking a month-on-month increase of 41.76% and a year-on-year rise of 76.12%.
Recently, coastal methanol import supplies have remained low, and there has been no significant increase in domestic supply replenishment; consequently, the coastal methanol market continues to face tight supply, providing strong price support. Furthermore, with the approach of the dual holidays, downstream companies are stocking up, which is driving the domestic methanol market upward.
As of the close of trading on September 18, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed reduce. The main methanol futures contract (2610) opened at 3,450 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,515 RMB/ton and a low of 3,395 RMB/ton, and closed at 3,433 RMB/ton; this represents a decline of 88 RMB/ton (or 2.50%) from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume stood at 2,058,212 lots, open interest was 288,276 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -14,219 lots.
Summary of methanol market prices across regions as of September 18:
On the cost side, coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, maintaining a firm direction that supports methanol prices as they fluctuate at high levels; cost-side factors are exerting a bullish affect on methanol.
On the demand side, operating rates to olefins have generally rebounded, while operating loads to traditional downstream sectors have declined due to pricing issues; nevertheless, essential pre-holiday demand remains a supporting factor. As the prices of most downstream items are influenced by methanol prices, the demand outlook to methanol is shaped by generally favorable factors.
On the supply side, units at Shanxi Linxin and Hebi Coal Chemical underwent maintenance, and Hualu Hengsheng reduced output; meanwhile, units at Yunnan Jiehua, Jinneng methodology, Qinghai Salt Lake, Yantai Wanhua, Shaanxi Changqing, and Inner Mongolia Guotai resumed operations. As the volume of resumed production exceeded the volume lost, capacity utilization rose and output increased, creating a bearish affect on the methanol supply outlook.
Regarding overseas markets, as of the close on September 17, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $617.5-$618.5 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 150-152 cents per gallon, while the European FOB Rotterdam market closed at €456-€458 per tonne.
Market outlook
With domestic supplies remaining tight and downstream demand to pre-holiday stockpiling persisting, a market sentiment favoring buying on rising prices has driven quotes to new highs. Overall, methanol analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the domestic methanol spot market will likely consolidate at a high level.
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