China's Phenol Acetone Market in October: Supply Chain Reshaping and Price Trend Depth Analysis

Market landscape shift: from seasonal rise to structural adjustment

in September, the price of China's phenol and acetone market climbed to around 7000 yuan/ton, boosted by the unexpected parking of several devices, showing the traditional "golden nine" characteristics. However, in October, the market heat dropped significantly, the core variable to Jilin 350000 tons of phenol ketone plant is about to be put into production. This new production capacity will reshape the supply chain from Northeast China to North China and have a profound impact on the global trade flow of phenol acetone.

Analysis of Supply Chain Reconfiguration Mechanism after the new plant is put into operation, the monthly supply of 10000 tons of phenol and 7000 tons of acetone will be added, which will break the closed cycle digestion mode in northeast China. The sales radius of phenol will be extended to Hebei, Shandong and other places, which means that the market competition in North China will intensify, which may affect the import demand structure of the region.

Downstream Capacity Matching Degree Assessment in July, the enterprise expanded MMA production capacity from 200000 tons to 250000 tons, with a theoretical digestion capacity of 12000 tons/month of acetone. However, the current operating rate is low and still acetone buyers, in the short term, the degree of industrial chain integration is limited, excess capacity will directly impact the external market.

Supply and demand dynamics: the space-time mismatch between the maintenance cycle and the demand gap.

Supply-side overhaul impact: The inspection plan for October is relatively intensive. The 280000-ton phenol ketone plant in Shandong will be overhauled for one month in late September, the 650000-ton plant in Ningbo, Zhejiang will be overhauled for 45 days in mid-October, and the supporting 350000-ton bisphenol A plant will be overhauled in early November. East China 150000 tons of cyclohexanone plant parking release phenol circulation of 6000 tons.

Demand side contraction pressure: Bisphenol A as the largest downstream of phenol (accounting for more than 60%), its maintenance directly weakens consumer demand. North China 240000 tons, Central China 130000 tons and East China 270000 tons of bisphenol A production capacity centralized maintenance, forming a significant demand gap.

Regional Mobility Analysis: Although the overall circulation has not changed much from September, the regional structural imbalance is prominent. The circulation volume in the north increased by 10000 tons, and the resumption of Lianyungang installations continued to impact the northern market; although the supply gap in the south exists, the local installations can basically meet the demand, and the arbitrage space between regions is narrowed.

Price trend prediction: the downward channel under multiple pressures.

demand front effect: Part of the October demand has been advanced to September to complete the transaction, after the end of the downstream centralized replenishment will face a demand vacuum period, this time difference will exacerbate the downward pressure on prices.

Weakening of cost support: Under the dual pressure of new supply shock and downstream maintenance, the price of phenol ketone in the fourth quarter lacks effective cost support and is expected to bear greater downward pressure.

Strategy recommendations: It is recommended that the relevant enterprises reasonably control the inventory level and pay close attention to the changes in the maintenance progress of the device. For overseas traders, lower prices in the Chinese market may provide a better purchasing window, but be wary of the risk of matching the inventory cycle with the timing of demand recovery.

Comprehensive judgment, the fourth quarter of China's phenol acetone market will enter the stage of supply and demand rebalancing, the price center of gravity downward trend is clear, it is recommended that the industry adjust the procurement and inventory strategy accordingly.