In-depth analysis of China's cyclohexanone market: continued pressure under the imbalance between supply and demand

Market Overview: Prices continue to bottom out, with a cumulative decline of greater than 26% during the year. For example October 2025 china's domestic cyclohexanone market continued the deep adjustment direction. After the traditional sales season "Jinjiu" failed to fulfill its expectations, the market continued to bottom out in October, showing a weak operating pattern. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of October 24, 2025, the mainstream price of cyclohexanone market in East China is 6700-6800 yuan/ton (including tax), corresponding to FOB price of about 890-920 US dollars/ton. In terms of price movements, the weekly decline was 1. 82 per cent, the monthly decline was 5. 59 per cent, and the cumulative plunge of 26. 03 per cent during the year fully reflected the continued weakness of the market throughout the year. The current market presents a "cost collapse-weak demand-high inventory" triple pressure overlay pattern. Upstream raw material end support continues to weaken, downstream terminal demand is difficult to activate, midstream links to inventory pressure is signifiis able tot. Furthermore Market participants generally hold a wait-and-see attitude, "buy up not buy down" psychological dominance, resulting in liquidity contraction, prices continue to refresh the year's low. sector chain conduction: upstream and downstream resonance intensifies market pressure upstream cost end continued weakness cyclohexanone production is highly dependent on pure benzene raw materials, and the market price of pure benzene fell precipitously in October. During the month, the listed price of pure benzene was reduced by 450 yuan/ton, and the current implementation price is 5450 yuan/ton (about 720 USD/ton). From what I've seen, The main drivers of the price decline include: the drag of the continuous decline international crude oil prices, the continued weakness of the futures market, the de-stocking of port inventories however weak demand follow-up, and the decline in purchasing willingness due to the deterioration of earnings in the downstream styrene and caprolactam industries. The rapid decline in the price of pure benzene immediately reduces theoretical production cost of cyclohexanone, weakens the price support, and strengthens the market's bearish expectations. In the current ecological stability, cyclohexanone production companies in the bargaining completely lost the initiative, forced to take the "guaranteed quantity without price" strategy. I've found that First Downstream demand continues to slump about 80% of cyclohexanone is applied to create caprolactam, so the market boom in caprolactam immediately determines the demand to cyclohexanone. In October, the price of caprolactam and chips fell with the raw material end. From what I've seen, At present, the mainstream price in East China is 9500-9800 yuan/ton, down greater than 20% from the beginning of the year. And The current benzene price difference is at a comparatively low level, and some periods are even upside down, indicating that manufacturers are facing serious profit pressure. In order to manage losses, some caprolactam companies in northern and eastern China have reduced their operating load from 85-90% to 70-75%. From what I've seen, In particular However, the scale of downstream production capacity continues to expand. Moreover it's expected that China's caprolactam production capacity will increase by about 500000 tons from 2025 to 2026, and the pattern of oversupply has not fundamentally changed. But Additionally The terminal textile and garment sector is affected by the slowdown of global economic development and weak consumer demand, and the order volume has decreased signifiis able totly, and the weak demand is transmitted upward through the manufacturing chain measure by measure. Downstream procurement strategy has shifted to "just need to purchase, that is, buy and consumption", inventory days from the healthy 15-20 days to 7-10 days, hoarding willingness is extremely low. Market operating characteristics: abundant supply encountered cold demand. But After the National Day, cyclohexanone production companies to the library intention signifiis able totly enhanced. Despite the pre-holiday part of the device parking maintenance, however the overall supply of the market is still abundant, which is due to the limited scale of maintenance, the early social inventory is high, as well as Japan and South Korea imports continue to Hong Kong. The offer price of companies in the northern region dropped rapidly from 6650-6750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 6300-6400 yuan/ton, a drop of 5-6% in just three weeks. For instance However, the supplier's price reduction promotion has not efficiently activated demand, downstream chemical fiber companies replenishment demand is still weak, the market presents a "price without market" pattern. During the period, the downstream individual caprolactam plant immediate negative operation, so that the amount of cyclohexanone rich in the short term signifiis able totly increased, supply pressure again amplified. All production companies and traders are facing the pressure of inventory sales, on-site price competition intensified, low-cost supply frequently. Traders operating strategy from "low buy high sell earn spread" to "follow the market fast in and out", the size of the position decreased signifiis able totly. International Market Connections and Trade Implications as the world's largest producer and consumer of cyclohexanone, the price changes in the Chinese market have a signifiis able tot guiding effect on the international market. But The current price decline will put pressure on regional markets such as Southeast Asia and India, while enhancing the export competitiveness of Chinese items. According to research to overseas traders, the current low prices provide procurement opportunities, however they need to be alert to the risk of "flying knives" and recommend a batch procurement strategy. In the downward price cycle, inventory size should be strictly controlled and turnover speed should be improved. to substantial forward contracts, consider hedging risk through futures markets or price adjustment clauses. After the market outlook: immediate cross-market after the possibility of still down. immediate prediction (next 2-4 weeks) cyclohexanone market will maintain a weak consolidation pattern, and the mainstream price in East China is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600-6800 yuan/ton. Recently, the international crude oil price rebounded from US $70/barrel to US $78-80/barrel, driving the price of pure benzene to rebound by about 200 yuan/ton, providing psychological support to cyclohexanone. Specifically Marginal improvement in market sentiment, with some participants believing that current prices are already cost-efficiently. But However, the fundamentals of the downstream caprolactam and chemical fiber sector have not yet improved substantially, and the "just need to purchase" model is difficult to change in the short term, which will limit the price rebound space. Medium-Term Outlook (Next 1-3 Months) in the medium term, the fundamentals of the cyclohexanone market are still weak, and the price might continue to decline after the immediate horizontal market. The contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to fundamentally alleviate, the downstream sector business climate recovery needs time, raw material end support is still fragile. After entering the fourth quarter, the chemical fiber sector has traditionally entered the off-season of demand, forming a seasonal suppression of cyclohexanone. In my experience, The current price is close to the cash cost of some companies, and the room to further sharp decline is relatively limited. But Once the sector's average cost line is touched, it will trigger a larger production cut, which will support prices.