In-depth analysis of China's cyclohexanone market: continued pressure under the imbalance between supply and demand

Market Overview: Prices continue to bottom out, with a cumulative decline of more than 26% during the year.

October 2025 china's domestic cyclohexanone market continued the deep adjustment trend. After the traditional sales season "Jinjiu" failed to fulfill its expectations, the market continued to bottom out in October, showing a weak operating pattern.

According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of October 24, 2025, the mainstream price of cyclohexanone market in East China is 6700-6800 yuan/ton (including tax), corresponding to FOB price of about 890-920 US dollars/ton. In terms of price movements, the weekly decline was 1.82 per cent, the monthly decline was 5.59 per cent, and the cumulative plunge of 26.03 per cent during the year fully reflected the continued weakness of the market throughout the year.

The current market presents a "cost collapse-weak demand-high inventory" triple pressure overlay pattern. Upstream raw material end support continues to weaken, downstream terminal demand is difficult to activate, midstream links to inventory pressure is significant. Market participants generally hold a wait-and-see attitude, "buy up not buy down" psychological dominance, resulting in liquidity contraction, prices continue to refresh the year's low.

Industry chain conduction: upstream and downstream resonance intensifies market pressure

upstream cost end continued weakness

cyclohexanone production is highly dependent on pure benzene raw materials, and the market price of pure benzene fell precipitously in October. During the month, the listed price of pure benzene was reduced by 450 yuan/ton, and the current implementation price is 5450 yuan/ton (about 720 USD/ton). The main drivers of the price decline include: the drag of the continuous decline in international crude oil prices, the continued weakness of the futures market, the de-stocking of port inventories but weak demand follow-up, and the decline in purchasing willingness due to the deterioration of earnings in the downstream styrene and caprolactam industries.

The rapid decline in the price of pure benzene directly reduces the theoretical production cost of cyclohexanone, weakens the price support, and strengthens the market's bearish expectations. In the current environment, cyclohexanone production enterprises in the bargaining completely lost the initiative, forced to take the "guaranteed quantity without price" strategy.

Downstream demand continues to slump

about 80% of cyclohexanone is used to produce caprolactam, so the market boom in caprolactam directly determines the demand for cyclohexanone. In October, the price of caprolactam and chips fell with the raw material end. At present, the mainstream price in East China is 9500-9800 yuan/ton, down more than 20% from the beginning of the year. The current benzene price difference is at a relatively low level, and some periods are even upside down, indicating that manufacturers are facing serious profit pressure.

In order to control losses, some caprolactam enterprises in northern and eastern China have reduced their operating load from 85-90% to 70-75%. However, the scale of downstream production capacity continues to expand. It is expected that China's caprolactam production capacity will increase by about 500000 tons from 2025 to 2026, and the pattern of oversupply has not fundamentally changed. The terminal textile and garment industry is affected by the slowdown of global economic growth and weak consumer demand, and the order volume has decreased significantly, and the weak demand is transmitted upward through the industrial chain step by step.

Downstream procurement strategy has shifted to "just need to purchase, that is, buy and use", inventory days from the normal 15-20 days to 7-10 days, hoarding willingness is extremely low.

Market operating characteristics: abundant supply encountered cold demand.

After the National Day, cyclohexanone production enterprises to the library intention significantly enhanced. Despite the pre-holiday part of the device parking maintenance, but the overall supply of the market is still abundant, which is due to the limited scale of maintenance, the early social inventory is high, as well as Japan and South Korea imports continue to Hong Kong.

The offer price of enterprises in the northern region dropped rapidly from 6650-6750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 6300-6400 yuan/ton, a drop of 5-6% in just three weeks. However, the supplier's price reduction promotion has not effectively activated demand, downstream chemical fiber enterprises replenishment demand is still weak, the market presents a "price without market" pattern.

During the period, the downstream individual caprolactam plant short-term negative operation, so that the amount of cyclohexanone rich in the short term significantly increased, supply pressure again amplified. All production enterprises and traders are facing the pressure of inventory sales, on-site price competition intensified, low-cost supply frequently. Traders operating strategy from "low buy high sell earn spread" to "follow the market fast in and out", the size of the position decreased significantly.

International Market Connections and Trade Implications

as the world's largest producer and consumer of cyclohexanone, the price changes in the Chinese market have a significant guiding effect on the international market. The current price decline will put pressure on regional markets such as Southeast Asia and India, while enhancing the export competitiveness of Chinese products.

For overseas traders, the current low prices provide procurement opportunities, but they need to be alert to the risk of "flying knives" and recommend a batch procurement strategy. In the downward price cycle, inventory size should be strictly controlled and turnover speed should be improved. For large forward contracts, consider hedging risk through futures markets or price adjustment clauses.

After the market outlook: short-term cross-market after the possibility of still down.

Short-term prediction (next 2-4 weeks)

cyclohexanone market will maintain a weak consolidation pattern, and the mainstream price in East China is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600-6800 yuan/ton. Recently, the international crude oil price rebounded from US $70/barrel to US $78-80/barrel, driving the price of pure benzene to rebound by about 200 yuan/ton, providing psychological support for cyclohexanone. Marginal improvement in market sentiment, with some participants believing that current prices are already cost-effective.

However, the fundamentals of the downstream caprolactam and chemical fiber industry have not yet improved substantially, and the "just need to purchase" model is difficult to change in the short term, which will limit the price rebound space.

Medium-Term Outlook (Next 1-3 Months)

in the medium term, the fundamentals of the cyclohexanone market are still weak, and the price may continue to decline after the short-term horizontal market. The contradiction between supply and demand in the short term is difficult to fundamentally alleviate, the downstream industry business climate recovery needs time, raw material end support is still fragile. After entering the fourth quarter, the chemical fiber industry has traditionally entered the off-season of demand, forming a seasonal suppression of cyclohexanone.

The current price is close to the cash cost of some enterprises, and the room for further sharp decline is relatively limited. Once the industry's average cost line is touched, it will trigger a larger production cut, which will support prices.