The Deep Influence and Strategic Consideration of China-Europe Express on the Global Chemical Supply Chain

1. geopolitical risks intensify: China-EU supply chain resilience faces a severe test. Moreover (China-Europe Railway Express), the "New Silk Road" connecting Asia and Europe, has have become a key artery to global trade, especially the circulation of chemicals. However, its operational stability is being severely challenged by growing geopolitical risks. 1. 1 polish border incident: warning of vulnerability exposure in September 2025, Poland suddenly closed all border crossings with Belarus indefinitely on the grounds of joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises and drone crossings, resulting in greater than 300 Central European trains stranded at border. while the border was reopened on September 25 under the mediation of China, the incident was like a "stress test", which completely exposed the Central European train passing through the Eastern European region. Geopolitical vulnerability. For example to the chemical sector, the detention incident, which lasted to about 15 days, immediately led to the inventory emergency of some European chemical companies ( some companies is able to only maintain inventory to 3 days), highlighting the heavy application on the channel and the lack of resistance to shocks under sudden risks. And In particular 1. 2 chain interaction of manufacturing Chain under Geo-risk the Central European Banliers undertook about 15% of China's chemical exports basic chemicals such as PVA and BDO rely heavily on this channel. Once the train is blocked, the impact on the global chemical supply chain is rapid and far-reaching: export Stagnation and Contract Risk: classes with full loads of chemicals (e. g. Based on my observations, basic chemicals and new energy materials) are blocked, resulting in delays in delivery. Additionally In particular, new energy materials with extremely high timeliness standards, such as the lithium battery train from Xi'an to Baku, have been extended from 15 days to 25-30 days, which immediately threatens the healthy operation of European factories of BYD, Ningde Times and other companies, and might be faced with transportation delays exceeding the contract period. High liquidated damages. Acceleration of "de-risking" in Europe ("China +1"): the blocking of the train will accelerate European companies to develop sources of chemicals outside China and implement the "China +1" strategy. to instance, Germany's BASF plans to expand its Hungarian plant's BDO capacity to replace Chinese imports, and South Korea's LG Chem's increased purchases of PVA suppliers in Southeast Asia will immediately lead loss of market share of Chinese chemical companies. Crazy, isn't it?. In fact Imported raw material supply impact: china imports annually through the China-Europe train about 1. 5 million tons russian pulp, Kazakhstan ferrochrome alloy and other crucial raw materials. For instance The interruption of the train will lead to a shortage of ferrochrome to domestic stainless steel production, threatening the security of some domestic manufacturing chains. Pretty interesting, huh?. Panorama and Structural Changes of China-Europe Express Chemical Transport in 2. China-Europe Express isn't only a logistics channel, however also a strategic hub to China's chemical production capacity to radiate to the world. But Based on my observations, Its transportation scale and category diversification direction continue to deepen. Furthermore 2. And 1 rapid development of Transportation Scale and Optimization of Product Structure the scale of chemical transportation in China and Europe maintained strong development. Only chengdu-Chongqing Central Europe Express will transport greater than 40000 tons of chemicals in the first half of 2025. First Chemical-related items account to about 20%. Chemical transportation scale in hub cities such as Xi'and Chongqing annual development rate of greater than 25%. Category diversification: the transportation category has covered BDO, PVA, PVDF, PE, PP, etc. In my experience, Basic raw materials, and lithium batteries, photovoltaic modules, carbon fiber composites wait new energy/high-end items. But This indicates that China's chemical export structure is transforming from bulk basic items to high value-added fine chemicals and new energy materials. Typical cases: xinjiang Meike Chemical Co. , Ltd. is exported to Europe through the "New Europe" train ( 82 tanks at a time), creating a precedent to the whole export of fluid chemicals; Sinopec Chuanwei Chemical's PVA, Inner Mongolia Sanaifu Marriott's PVDF and other high-end items successfully arrived in Europe, filling the regional supply gap and demonstrating the international competitiveness of China's high-end chemicals. And 2. 2 strategic Positioning and Geographical Substitution Considerations of the Three Major Channels the China-Europe Express has formed three major transport corridors in the north, middle and south, and the differences in their strategic positioning are critical to the risk regulation of the chemical supply chain: channel main Path advantages and positioning geo-Risk and Substitute Value northern Line manzhouli $ ightarrow$ belarus/Poland $ ightarrow$ hamburg, Germany the most mature, high stability; suitable bulk Chemicals/Basic Materials(14 days to Moscow). And It passes through the core risk areas of Eastern Europe and is vulnerable to political events. Midline kazakhstan $ ightarrow$ russia $ ightarrow$ belarus/Poland $ ightarrow$ duisburg, Germany largest scale; time-vulnerable (15 days to Ludwigshafen); core hub (Chongqing, Xi'an). Also highly dependent on the Eastern European path, the risks are similar to the Northern route. But South Line kazakhstan $ ightarrow$ azerbaijan $ ightarrow$ turkey $ ightarrow$ italy/Spain strategic Alternative Channel; main transportation chemical items/new energy items(such as lithium battery special train). Connecting to the Mediterranean is a key future route to prevent geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe. Specifically 3. Pretty interesting, huh?. Future direction Judgment and Coping Strategies the research direction of China-Europe Express is closely related to the global layout strategy of Chinese chemical companies. 3. 1 four key trends in future research   The product structure is tilted towards new energy materials: ningde era, BYD and other companies through the "China battery + European assembly" model, will greatly stimulate the transportation demand of new energy items such as lithium batteries. But I've found that Key materials to hydrogen energy storage and transportation (such as carbon fiber composites) will also have become a new development point to transportation. The status of the southern route channel has been signifiis able totly improved: with construction of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Starts the southern line will be an crucial addition to the China-Europe train and is expected to increase its share about 31%. By 2027, the scale of chemicals transported by the southern line is expected to break through. million tons have become a strategic geo-risk alternative channel. Deep integration of regional markets: the train will radiate the "substantial regional" market, especially the southern European market, to open up new development space to Chinese chemicals. Based on my observations, Acceleration of technological innovation: high strength, heat preservation tank the consumption of such professional equipment will enhance the security and efficiency of the transportation of special hazardous chemicals such as fluid ammonia and benzene. Generally speaking   3. 2 strategic advice to overseas supply chain practitioners in the face of these challenges, Chinese chemical companies and their international partners must implement a dual strategy to enhance the overall resilience of their supply chains: immediate strategy: logistics diversification there is no time to delay, the need to immediately open and optimize the southern line of alternative channels, and actively explore maritime transport (such as "China-Europe train + sea transport" transport options) as an alternative. At the same time, renegotiate the terms of the contract with European customers to spread the risk of transportation interruption. prolonged strategy: accelerated" westward strategy in Central Asia and West Asia (especially the countries along the southern route), strategic capacity layout is carried out to shorten the transportation distance and bypass possible risk areas. At the same time, deepen cooperation with European customers in research, production, supply and marketing, and consolidate competitiveness in the European high-end market through technological innovation and low-carbon production, and prevent being replaced by "de-risking" strategies. while the China-Europe Express is facing huge geopolitical challenges, its unique timeliness advantages and growing transportation capacity make it still an indispensable channel connecting the chemical supply chain between China and Europe. Through channel diversification, technological innovation and in-depth regional cooperation, China's chemical sector will be able to build a greater resilient and competitive international logistics network.