The Deep Influence and Strategic Consideration of China-Europe Express on the Global Chemical Supply Chain

1. geopolitical risks intensify: China-EU supply chain resilience faces a severe test.

(China-Europe Railway Express), the "New Silk Road" connecting Asia and Europe, has become a key artery for global trade, especially the circulation of chemicals. However, its operational stability is being severely challenged by increasing geopolitical risks.

1.1 polish border incident: warning of vulnerability exposure

in September 2025, Poland suddenly closed all border crossings with Belarus indefinitely on the grounds of joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises and drone crossings, resulting in more than 300 Central European trains stranded at border. Although the border was reopened on September 25 under the mediation of China, the incident was like a "stress test", which completely exposed the Central European train passing through the Eastern European region. Geopolitical vulnerability.

For the chemical industry, the detention incident, which lasted for about 15 days, directly led to the inventory emergency of some European chemical enterprises ( some enterprises can only maintain inventory for 3 days), highlighting the heavy dependence on the channel and the lack of resistance to shocks under sudden risks.

1.2 chain Reaction of Industrial Chain under Geo-risk

the Central European Banliers undertook about 15% of China's chemical exports basic chemicals such as PVA and BDO rely heavily on this channel. Once the train is blocked, the impact on the global chemical supply chain is rapid and far-reaching:

• export Stagnation and Contract Risk: classes with full loads of chemicals (e. g. basic chemicals and new energy materials) are blocked, resulting in delays in delivery. In particular, new energy materials with extremely high timeliness requirements, such as the lithium battery train from Xi'an to Baku, have been extended from 15 days to 25-30 days, which directly threatens the normal operation of European factories of BYD, Ningde Times and other enterprises, and may be faced with transportation delays exceeding the contract period. High liquidated damages.

• Acceleration of "de-risking" in Europe ("China +1"): the blocking of the train will accelerate European companies to seek sources of chemicals outside China and implement the "China +1" strategy. For example, Germany's BASF plans to expand its Hungarian plant's BDO capacity to replace Chinese imports, and South Korea's LG Chem's increased purchases of PVA suppliers in Southeast Asia will directly lead loss of market share of Chinese chemical enterprises.

• Imported raw material supply impact: china imports annually through the China-Europe train about 1.5 million tons russian pulp, Kazakhstan ferrochrome alloy and other important raw materials. The interruption of the train will lead to a shortage of ferrochrome for domestic stainless steel production, threatening the safety of some domestic industrial chains.

Panorama and Structural Changes of China-Europe Express Chemical Transport in 2.

China-Europe Express is not only a logistics channel, but also a strategic hub for China's chemical production capacity to radiate to the world. Its transportation scale and category diversification trend continue to deepen.

2.1 rapid Growth of Transportation Scale and Optimization of Product Structure

the scale of chemical transportation in China and Europe maintained strong growth. Only chengdu-Chongqing Central Europe Express will transport more than 40000 tons of chemicals in the first half of 2025. Chemical-related products account for about 20%. Chemical transportation scale in hub cities such as Xi'an and Chongqing annual growth rate of more than 25%.

• Category diversification: the transportation category has covered BDO, PVA, PVDF, PE, PP, etc. Basic raw materials, and lithium batteries, photovoltaic modules, carbon fiber composites wait new energy/high-end products. This indicates that China's chemical export structure is transforming from bulk basic products to high value-added fine chemicals and new energy materials.

• Typical cases: xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. is exported to Europe through the "New Europe" train ( 82 tanks at a time), creating a precedent for the whole export of liquid chemicals; Sinopec Chuanwei Chemical's PVA, Inner Mongolia Sanaifu Marriott's PVDF and other high-end products successfully arrived in Europe, filling the local supply gap and demonstrating the international competitiveness of China's high-end chemicals.

2.2 strategic Positioning and Geographical Substitution Considerations of the Three Major Channels

the China-Europe Express has formed three major transport corridors in the north, middle and south, and the differences in their strategic positioning are critical to the risk management of the chemical supply chain:

3. Future Trend Judgment and Coping Strategies

the development trend of China-Europe Express is closely related to the global layout strategy of Chinese chemical enterprises.

3.1 four key trends in future development

1. The product structure is tilted towards new energy materials: ningde era, BYD and other enterprises through the "China battery + European assembly" model, will greatly stimulate the transportation demand of new energy products such as lithium batteries. Key materials for hydrogen energy storage and transportation (such as carbon fiber composites) will also become a new growth point for transportation.

2. The status of the southern route channel has been significantly improved: with construction of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Starts the southern line will be an important addition to the China-Europe train and is expected to increase its share about 31%. By 2027, the scale of chemicals transported by the southern line is expected to break through. million tons become a strategic geo-risk alternative channel.

3. Deep integration of regional markets: the train will radiate the "large regional" market, especially the southern European market, to open up new growth space for Chinese chemicals.

4. Acceleration of technological innovation: high strength, heat preservation tank the application of such professional equipment will improve the safety and efficiency of the transportation of special hazardous chemicals such as liquid ammonia and benzene.

3.2 strategic advice for overseas supply chain practitioners

in the face of these challenges, Chinese chemical companies and their international partners must adopt a dual strategy to improve the overall resilience of their supply chains:

• short-term strategy: logistics diversification there is no time to delay, the need to immediately open and optimize the southern line of alternative channels, and actively explore maritime transport (such as "China-Europe train + sea transport" transport options) as an alternative. At the same time, renegotiate the terms of the contract with European customers to spread the risk of transportation interruption.

• Long-term strategy: accelerated" westward strategy in Central Asia and West Asia (especially the countries along the southern route), strategic capacity layout is carried out to shorten the transportation distance and bypass potential risk areas. At the same time, deepen cooperation with European customers in research, production, supply and marketing, and consolidate competitiveness in the European high-end market through technological innovation and low-carbon production, and avoid being replaced by "de-risking" strategies.

Although the China-Europe Express is facing huge geopolitical challenges, its unique timeliness advantages and growing transportation capacity make it still an indispensable channel connecting the chemical supply chain between China and Europe. Through channel diversification, technological innovation and in-depth regional cooperation, China's chemical industry will be able to build a more resilient and competitive international logistics network.