China's November phenol ketone market: bottoming out or continuing to bottom out?

1. October 2025 market operation review: price decline and supply and demand structure analysis.

In October 2025, China's phenol ketone market experienced significant downward pressure, and the price center of gravity quickly bottomed out to a low during the year. This volatility is not driven by a single factor, but is the result of a combination of weakness on the cost side, weakness on the demand side, and local oversupply.

1.1 phenol: a game of falling prices and low inventories

• Price Data and Decline: Phenol prices fall to October low $6450/ton, down $350/ton from before the holiday (before the National Day holiday) 5.15 percent.

• Downturn Driving Force Depth Analysis:

  • cost-side drag: Upstream raw material pure benzene remained weak, international oil prices and the overall performance of the aromatics market depressed, resulting in the collapse of phenol cost support.

  • Weak demand: Lower start-up in the bisphenol A(BPA) industry, the main downstream application area, has directly weakened the procurement demand for phenol.

  • Area Supply Pressure: Some producers in the northern market are in a hurry. Contract Progress, leading to short-term abundant supply the market's bearish sentiment is strong, prompting the price center to move down.

• Low stalemate factor: Despite market weakness, due phenol port inventories continue at low levels this structural factor provides bottom support for prices, causing prices to turn into weak stalemate after bottoming out. At the end of the month, the industry mentality is empty, the field of low-cost supply, showing that the market is expected to be cautious about the future.

1.2 acetone: collapsing demand leads to a sharp fall

• Price Data and Decline: Propone prices fell in October low $4100/ton, down $350/ton from before the holiday, down as much 7.87 percent.

• Market Sentiment and Volatility: Acetone staged again after National Day rapid Low Mode, its price elasticity is greater than phenol. The main reason is that it is difficult to create a replenishment atmosphere on the demand side, the mentality of the industry collapsed rapidly., pushing the center of gravity to continue to fall.

• Short-term rebound and return: There was a brief "bottoming out" after the price fell to a low stalemate, mainly due traders make-up operation caused. However, with the end of the trade gap, the weak atmosphere in the market at the end of the month is difficult to change, confirming the lack of momentum for continuous improvement on the demand side.

Supply and Demand Pattern, Cost Expectation and Price Trend Outlook in November 2.

The market focus in November will be on the maintenance plan of the phenolic ketone plant, the replenishment of import sources and the recovery speed of downstream demand.

2.1 supply-side analysis: capacity utilization decreases but overall supply stabilizes

it is estimated that the operating rate of phenol ketone industry in November will be in 83.5 percent(The national effective capacity is 10.62 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate has been reduced.

• Amount and arrangement of overhaul loss:

  • the 650000-ton phenol ketone plant in Ningbo, Zhejiang continued to stop in November and is scheduled to restart in mid-December.

  • The 650000-ton phenol ketone plant in Zhejiang Phase II will be overhauled for 13 days from November 3, and is expected to be overhauled for another month in December.

  • Shandong 280000 tons of phenol ketone plant is expected to restart on November 9.

• Phenol supply balance: The estimated loss of installation and maintenance in November is 50000 tons left and right. However, this amount of loss was imported from the source (expected. 21000 tons) and new production capacity released steadily and continuously by new production enterprises in Northeast China effective complement, leading limited loss of supply in the integrated market. It is estimated that the phenol circulation in November will be 174600 tons.

• Acetone supply balance: Projected loss of propanone in November 32000 tons left and right. But the source of imports is expected 22500 tons, superimposed on the existing fill-in in October, while the amount of acetone in the northern market decreased, the market circulation supply increased. Therefore, the supply of acetone supply is expected. Relatively smooth. Projected acetone circulation in November is 161700 tons.

Conclusion: Although domestic factories have cut production and maintenance, import replenishment and new capacity release effectively offset the reduction, so that the pressure on the supply side of phenol ketone in November has not been fundamentally alleviated.

2.2 cost and demand-side analysis: lack of strong support

• cost end: Raw materials are expected to be weak and difficult to form a positive.

  • pure benzene: Upstream supply remains high in November (import volume expected 470000 tons), demand is difficult to increase. Overall given a weak view, the East China market price is expected to be in. $5000 - $5450/ton between.

  • Propylene: Expected domestic propylene market price in November first suppressed and then raised, Shandong mainstream price range in $5850 - $6250/ton, the mainstream price range in East China is in. $5900 - $6200/ton between shocks.

• Demand side: The downstream device adjustment is limited, and the pulling effect is flat.

  • Bisphenol A: Multiple units scheduled for restart or overhaul in November. However, it should be noted that most of the restart devices are phenol and ketone supporting enterprises (e. g., the 180000-ton/year supporting phenol and ketone plant in Shandong Province resumes operation after restart), which means that its phenol consumption is mainly for its own use. Limited incremental procurement demand for market circulation sources.

  • MMA: There are still planned maintenance of the unit (85000 tons/year in Jiangsu, 100000 tons/year in Fujian and 125000 tons/year in Shandong for one week of annual inspection).

  • Summary: The downstream demand side remains small single just need mainly, lack of centralized replenishment atmosphere.

November 2.3 Price Forecast and Risk Alert

comprehensive supply and demand and cost analysis, the phenol ketone market will be in the low range in November. Weak Games and Concussion.

• Phenol price forecast: The supply is relatively stable, the northern supply is still abundant, the raw material end of pure benzene is expected to be difficult to have a good support. It is estimated that the domestic market price of phenol in November vulnerable Fluctuations, the price range is expected $6250 - $6500/ton fluctuations.

• Acetone Price Forecast: Some factories have reduced contract volumes, but the concentration of imports in Hong Kong has created shipping pressure. Downstream demand side is still small single just demand-oriented. Projected Domestic Market Price of Propone in November low Volatility, the price range is expected $4000 - $4300/ton between fluctuations, the market or there is a weak trend.

Risk Alert: Overseas traders and suppliers need to be concerned that supply in the Chinese market has not tightened significantly due to overhauls, especially in acetone. Import source concentrated to port the short-term impact on the regional market will be a key factor affecting the price trend in November.