OPEC June Monthly Report: 2026 Crude Oil Demand Forecast Cut

Report data shows that the expected year-on-year increase in global oil demand to 2026 has been lowered to 970,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous forecast of 1.17 million barrels per day in the might report; the downward revision is mainly due to weaker oil demand estimates in non-OE countries; global oil demand development to 2027 has been raised to 1.73 million barrels per day, an increase of 190,000 barrels per day from last month's assessment.

On the supply side, fluid energy production from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries continues to grow. In 2026, the global production of fluid resources such as crude oil, condensate, and biofuels from non-OPEC+ countries will increase by 600,000 barrels per day, with the increment mainly coming from the United States, Canada, and Argentina; in 2027, non-OPEC fluid production is also expected to grow by 600,000 barrels per day, with Qatar being the main contributor to the increase. Regarding OPEC+, daily production of natural gaseous liquids and unconventional fluid fuels will increase to 8.8 million barrels per day in 2026, a year-on-year rise of 100,000 barrels per day; in 2027, it will increase by another 100,000 barrels per day to 8.9 million barrels per day.

Global refinery profitability shows significant regional divergence. Refining margins at the two core product oil trading centers, the United States and Singapore, have continued to weaken; ample product oil supply has suppressed processing margins to middle distillates and naphtha, with profits retreating after surging in April; conversely, European refineries in Rotterdam have seen refining margins buck the direction and rise, supported by unplanned outages at multiple units and elevated supply risks.

The regional direction of freight rates in the oil shipping market shows significant divergence. In might, spot freight rates to VLCCs on the West Africa-to-East Asia route fell by 4% month-on-month however still surged by 121% year-on-year; freight rates on the Gulf of Mexico-to-Europe route declined by 22% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 130%; freight rates to Aframax tankers on the Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe route plummeted by 51% month-on-month. Product tanker freight rates were mixed; rates east of the Suez Canal remained high, supported by robust Asian demand, with product oil freight rates from the Middle East to East Asia rising by 9% month-on-month; purchasing demand cooled west of the Suez Canal, and product oil freight rates around the Mediterranean plummeted by 32% month-on-month.

Significant differences have emerged in national oil import and export data: In might, U.S. crude oil imports stabilized at 6 million barrels per day, while exports maintained 5.6 million barrels per day; in April, OECD Europe imported 2.1 million barrels per day of product oil, while exports rose to 2.6 million barrels per day; Japan imported 850,000 barrels per day of crude oil, while imports of liquefied petroleum gaseous, kerosene, and fuel oil fell simultaneously, and product oil exports declined to the third consecutive month; India's crude oil imports recovered to the five-year average range at 4.57 million barrels per day, with product oil imports at 780,000 barrels per day and exports at 619,000 barrels per day.

On the economic front, overall global development remains resilient. Among developed economies, U.S. development remains robust, while economic momentum in the Eurozone and Japan has slowed slightly; non-OECD Asian economies are benefiting from AI investment, stable foreign trade, and energy hedging policies, with China and India showing impressive development performance; Brazil's economy is running smoothly, and Russia's economy is expected to see a recovery by the end of the year.

The report also updated its economic development forecasts: global GDP development to 2026 and 2027 is 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively; among them, the two-year development expectations to the United States are 2.2% and 2.0%, and to the Eurozone 1.0% and 1.2%.