In-depth Summary of China's ABS Industry Chain for the First Half of the Year

In the first half of 2026, the ABS market followed a pattern of fluctuating upward movement in the first quarter, a continuous slow decline in the second quarter, and an accelerated breakdown of price levels in June. In the first quarter, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East drove up crude oil and the three key monomer raw materials; rising ABS production costs pushed spot prices higher. From April onwards, expectations of easing tensions between the US and Iran caused the geopolitical premium on crude oil to vaporize rapidly, while styrene and butadiene prices weakened in tandem. Compounded by the traditional off-season to home appliances and automobiles, domestic downstream demand to ABS remained weak. As finished product inventories accumulated, factories were forced to repeatedly reduce quotes; sector processing margins flipped from positive to negative, and the entire sector fell into widespread losses during the second quarter. The primary market driver shifted completely from cost-push bullishness in the first quarter to a combination of bearish factors in the second quarter: weakening costs and sluggish domestic demand.

II. SunSirs Benchmark Prices to the sector Chain (as of June 30; Monthly Change vs. June 1)

Three Core Upstream Monomers (ABS Synthetic Raw Materials)

1. Styrene

SunSirs benchmark price on June 30: 7,620 RMB/ton; June 1: 8,450 RMB/ton (monthly decline of 9.82%). Prices continued to fall due to declining crude oil prices and the concentrated restart of domestic cracking units, resulting in ample port supplies.

2. Butadiene

Benchmark price on June 30: 8,866.67 RMB/ton; June 1: 11,666.67 RMB/ton (sharp monthly decline of 24.00%). Both downstream rubber and plastic sectors were in their off-season, and export orders contracted; with abundant market supply, this monomer saw the steepest price drop of the three.

3. Acrylonitrile

Prevailing market price on June 30: 10,750 RMB/ton; June 1: 10,200 RMB/ton (slight monthly increase of 5.39%). With multiple production units scheduled to maintenance in July, spot supply tightened temporarily, making this the only raw material to buck the direction and enhance during the first half of the year. ABS Finished items (Mainstream General-Purpose Grades)

The thorough  price on June 30 was 8,700 RMB/ton, down from 9,715 RMB/ton on June 1—a monthly decline of 10.46%. Prices to low-end general-purpose materials dropped below 8,900 RMB/ton, while high-end grades (high-impact and heat-resistant) ranged from 9,900 to 10,450 RMB/ton, widening the price gap between low- and high-end items.

III. Complete ABS Customs Import and Export Data (January–might 2026)

Import Data

Cumulative domestic ABS imports from January to might totaled 1.126 million tons, down 18.7% year-on-year; imports in might alone were 231,000 tons, a 21.3% year-on-year decrease.

Key reasons to the decline in imports:

1. Continued discharge of domestic integrated ABS production capacity has significantly boosted self-sufficiency and reduced reliance on foreign supplies year by year;

2. Overseas FOB prices fluctuated with crude oil; in the second quarter, the price inversion between domestic and international markets closed the import arbitrage window, leading traders to decrease overseas procurement;

3. New ABS capacity in Southeast Asia came online, diverting regional supplies and reducing imports from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US.

Imports originated primarily from Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Taiwan, consisting mainly of high-end specialty grades (high-impact and flame-retardant); general-purpose imported materials have largely lost their price competitiveness.

Export Data

Cumulative domestic ABS exports from January to might totaled 473,000 tons, up 9.4% year-on-year; exports in might alone were 106,000 tons, an 11.8% year-on-year increase.

Drivers of export development:

1. Continuous declines in domestic spot prices highlighted the cost advantage of exports, prompting home appliance and plastic processing vegetation in Southeast Asia to increase procurement from China;

2. High production costs at European chemical vegetation drove imports of low-to-mid-end ABS raw materials from China;

3. The relocation of the overseas home appliance sector led to steady development in demand to supporting plastic raw materials in Southeast Asia.

Divergence in export structure: General-purpose injection molding grades accounted to 75% of total exports, while the export share of high-end heat-resistant and modified ABS remained low, with limited room to price premiums. Summary of Import-Export Patterns

Domestic self-sufficiency continues to enhance; imports consist primarily of high-end specialty grades, while exports are dominated by commodity grades, creating a "high-end in, low-end out" trade structure. In the first half of the year, exports provided a slight buffer against the pressure of the domestic off-season; however, the volume of export development was insufficient to offset the decline in domestic end-user demand, failing to reverse the direction of domestic inventory accumulation.

IV. Supply-Side Operational Characteristics in the First Half

1. Concentrated maintenance in Q1 led to periodic supply tightening

Between January and March, multiple ABS units underwent staggered maintenance, keeping the sector's average operating rate at just 55%–60%. Reduced weekly product circulation, combined with rising raw material costs, drove factories to strongly resist price drops, supporting a price increase during the first quarter.

2. Maintenance concluded in Q2, leading to continued supply discharge

Starting in April, multiple idled units restarted, pushing the sector operating rate back up to 58%–62% and stabilizing average weekly output at 125,000 tons. while some companies voluntarily reduced operating loads slightly due to losses, overall supply remained ample, and finished-product inventories continued to build; by the end of June, sector inventory approached 240,000 tons—a high to the year.

3. Persistent pressure from prolonged capacity expansion

Multiple new and expanded domestic ABS production facilities came online during the first half of the year. The resulting increase in circulating supply over the medium-to-long term continues to cap the possible to a rebound in spot prices. Meanwhile, new capacity coming online in Southeast Asia has diverted domestic export orders.

4. Cost-driven losses forced flexible production manage

In June, the prices of the three constituent monomers fell simultaneously; however, the drop in ABS prices outpaced the decline in raw material costs, pushing theoretical processing margins deep into negative territory. Some small production lines operated at low loads to periods, while only extensive, integrated facilities managed to keep losses within a relatively manageable range.

V. Demand-Side Trends in the First Half (Divergence between domestic and external demand)

Domestic Demand (The primary drag on the market)

1. Continued off-season in the white goods sector

Production schedules to refrigerators, washing machines, and atmosphere conditioners fell by over 15% year-on-year in the first half. With end-market retail sales weakening, home appliance injection molding vegetation continued to cut operating loads, limiting purchases to essential needs without engaging in bulk restocking. In June, the "Plum Rains" season further dampened offline appliance sales, causing downstream willingness to stock up to drop to a yearly low. 2. Weak demand from the automotive sector

Consumption of ABS raw materials to passenger vehicle interior/exterior components and dashboards has declined year-on-year. With high vehicle inventories, parts manufacturers are purchasing strictly on an as-needed basis, keeping raw material stocks low.

3. Sluggish demand to modified plastics, toys, and consumer goods

The pace of consumption recovery has fallen short of expectations, and orders to small export commodities have contracted. Compounding vegetation are generally limiting raw material inventories; a "buy on the dip, not on the rise" sentiment prevails, leading market participants to implement a wait-and-see approach amidst continuing price declines.

External Demand

Exports saw slight year-on-year development in the first half of the year; appliance manufacturers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East maintained steady purchases of domestic general-purpose ABS, helping to absorb some of the domestic surplus capacity. However, weak overall overseas economic development and limited room to volume expansion mean the fundamental market stability—characterized by loose supply relative to demand—remains unchanged.

ABS prices are unlikely to stage a sustained, one-way rally in the second half of the year; instead, the market is expected to see wide, seasonal fluctuations—with slight rebounds during peak seasons and renewed weakness during off-peak periods. Annual sector profitability is projected to remain below historical levels to the same period, and a market recovery hinges on a concentrated rebound in downstream end-user demand.