China PET Bottle Chip Prices Drop on July 27

1) Spot Market (Virgin aquatic environments-Grade Bottle Chips)

Factory List Prices: Quotes lowered rapidly; mainstream offers at 7,250–7,380 RMB/ton.

Spot Transaction Negotiations: 7,220–7,320 RMB/ton; increased room to negotiation on substantial orders.

Monthly prolonged Contract Reference: Around 7,250 RMB/ton; down 120–180 RMB/ton from last Friday.

Export (FOB Shanghai): 980–1,010 USD/ton; overseas quotes fell in tandem, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach.

2) Futures Market (Main Contract to PR Bottle Chips)

Opened significantly reduce and trended downward throughout the day; dominated by short sellers.

Closing Price: 7,192 RMB/ton; down 390 RMB (5.22%).

Intraday Range: 7,034–7,442 RMB; prices fell alongside rising open interest, technical support levels were breached, and market panic was unleashed.

3) Upstream Raw Materials Plunged (Collapse of Cost Support)

PTA Main Contract: Dropped sharply; cost support weakened rapidly.

MEG: Weakened in tandem; the center of gravity to aggregate PET production costs shifted downward.

Trigger: International crude oil prices plummeted, the geopolitical risk premium evaporated rapidly, and the entire PET sector chain came under pressure.

II. Key Market Logic

Rapid Crude Oil Correction; Collapse of Cost Expectations

Previous gains relied on the crude oil premium driven by Middle East geopolitical conflicts; today, oil prices fell sharply, eliminating expectations to further upside in PX and PTA. Long positions were closed to lock in profits, causing the entire PET chain to decline. prolonged weak supply-demand fundamentals; rebounds lack demand support

Domestic PET bottle chip operating rates remain high at 88%–89%; the restart of multiple earlier units and the continued rollout of new capacity have resulted in generally ample spot supply;

Downstream beverage and preform manufacturers are experiencing a lackluster peak season; having completed Q3 stockpiling at reduce price points earlier, they halt restocking as soon as prices rebound, limiting purchases to immediate needs only—there is no sustained buying interest to support price increases.

Futures slump triggers collapse in spot market sentiment

Futures prices broke key support levels rapidly, causing traders to offload inventory in a panic; factories were forced to reduce quotes to move stock, creating a negative feedback loop: "futures drop → spot prices follow → trading volume weakens."

Limited immediate bullish factors

We are currently in the traditional peak season to summer beverages, with continued rigid demand to downstream shipments; expectations exist to bargain hunting and restocking following the sharp decline;

immediate maintenance plans to some production units might slightly alleviate supply pressure;

Processing margins remain low; once prices fall to a certain range, factories might have become greater willing to cut production to support prices.

III. immediate market outlook (3–7 days)

Market tone: Weak with evaporative environment; wide price swings; the center of gravity is greater likely to shift downward than upward.

The recent rally was cost-driven rather than fueled by a recovery in demand; with geopolitical tailwinds fading, the market is once again dominated by loose supply-demand fundamentals.

Reference price range (East China aquatic environments-grade bottle chip spot)

Support range: 7,150–7,200 RMB/tonne; Resistance level: 7,400 RMB/tonne

If crude oil prices continue to weaken, spot prices might test the 7,100 RMB/tonne level; a market recovery is unlikely unless crude oil stabilizes and rebounds.