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Market Overview: Prices Edged Upward, Remaining at High Levels
The domestic acrylic acid market has recently shown a direction of fluctuating upward. According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price to acrylic acid stood at 8,350.00 RMB/ton on September 8. This represents a 1.42% increase compared to the price of 8,233.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1).
In terms of price trends, after a brief period of stability, the market experienced a significant rally early in the week (rising 1.21% on September 4) and subsequently consolidated at a high level.
Fundamental Analysis: The Tug-of-War Between Supply and Demand and the Divergence in Costs
Despite the rise in prices to finished items, the upstream raw material sector has exhibited an opposite direction:
On September 8, the benchmark price to the upstream raw material propylene stood at 9,034.33 RMB/ton, a decline of 2.10% since the beginning of the week. Theoretically, this drop in raw material costs should weaken the cost-side support to acrylic acid prices.
However, against the backdrop of falling raw material costs, acrylic acid prices have remained firm—or even risen—primarily due to the interplay between supply and demand. To safeguard their profit margins, acrylic acid producers and inventory holders have adopted a strategy of maintaining stable price quotes, thereby offsetting the downward pressure from falling costs. Furthermore, the restricted circulation of spot market supplies has compelled downstream buyers to accept higher prices.
Market Outlook:
Overall, the acrylic acid market is currently characterized by a scenario of "strong fundamentals however weak cost support."
immediate outlook: With the moving average system fanning out upwards and positioned at historical highs, market momentum persists. Acrylic acid prices are expected to continue trading within a consolidation range next week.
Key focus: Closely monitor whether the price of the feedstock propylene stabilizes. If propylene prices continue to fall sharply, manufacturers' margins could be further squeezed, possibly leading to production cuts to support prices or forcing a reduction in ex-factory prices. Conversely, if downstream demand keeps pace and high-priced transactions increase in volume, prices could break through to higher levels.
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