July phenol ketone market big differentiation! Acetone plummeted and phenol was strong. How can the future market go?

entering July, the domestic acetone market once again showed a rapid decline, and the price continued to fall to 4600 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly. With the end of the trade fill link, the downstream procurement strategy shifted to the principle of low-price buying, the market game significantly increased.

In sharp contrast, the phenol market benefited from the tight supply of goods at the terminal, and the price once hovered in the range of 6500-6600 yuan/ton. This divergent trend reflects the significant differences in the supply and demand fundamentals of the two products.

acetone price pressure factors:

• east China Terminal Inventory Maintains Above 20000 Tons
• downstream pick-up and delivery ships are more scattered.
• The game is aggravated, the buyer holds a low-buy mentality.

phenol price support factors:

• jiangyin Wharf Inventory Drops to Below 10000 Tons
• relatively low volume of imported arrivals
• there is support for export orders in domestic phenolic ketone factories.

inventory status comparison

acetone inventory dynamics: At present, acetone inventory shows a near-end de-stocking trend. Although the volume of imports has decreased since June, the inventory of East China terminals has remained above 20000 tons due to the dispersion of domestic downstream pick-up and delivery ships. This level of inventory has a depressing effect on prices.

phenol inventory tension: phenol market supply is facing greater challenges. The amount of imported goods is relatively small. At the same time, domestic phenol ketone factories have export order support. In July, the inventory of phenol Jiangyin Wharf gradually dropped to below 10000 tons. The supply of goods at the wharf is obviously tight, providing strong support for the price.

Capacity and Commencement

the overall start-up status of the industry: as of July 15, the effective production capacity of the national phenol ketone industry reached 10.27 million tons (excluding 4 parents to stop production of 1.04 million tons, the new production capacity of 650000 tons). At present, the operating capacity of phenol ketone is 9.31 million tons, and the operating rate is maintained at around 90%, which is at a high level throughout the year.

Expected future production capacity: in 2025, Shandong Fuyu Chemical is expected to add 155000 tons/year of phenol production capacity, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is expected to add 400000 tons/year, in addition to Jilin Petrochemical, Zibo Ruilin Chemical and other enterprises also have new production capacity production plans. In 2025, China's phenol industry capacity construction or will speed up again, the annual new capacity is expected to reach more than 995000 tons.

Looking forward to 2025, three sets of phenol ketone plants are expected to be put into operation, with a total production capacity of 1.25 million tons, and the production capacity growth rate will reach 11.7.

raw material cost pressure

in July, the price of pure benzene as raw material gradually strengthened after a slight decline. At present, the listed price of pure benzene in East China petrochemical enterprises is 5950 yuan/ton. The relative strength of the price of pure benzene has limited transmission promotion effect on the price of phenol ketone products, but the overall cost pressure has increased significantly.

Cost structure analysis: in June 2025, the cost per ton of phenol ketone in East China increased by 98 yuan/ton. Based on the current price level, the loss per ton of phenol ketone production is about 650 yuan/ton, and the profitability of the industry is not optimistic.

The profit of phenol ketone industry in June was -346 yuan/ton, and the average monthly gross profit of bisphenol A industry in June was -498 yuan/ton. The overall profit of the industry was not good.

Profit distribution of industrial chain

continued pressure on the cost side will have an important impact on subsequent price movements. In the value distribution of the industrial chain, upstream pure benzene enjoys a larger share of profits, while the production of phenol ketone bears greater cost pressure.

main downstream areas

phenol downstream demand: Phenol is expected to add Fujian phenolic resin and Shandong vanillin project, will bring a certain increase in demand. However, the production of cyclohexanone is still affected by the price difference between phenol and pure benzene, and there is uncertainty. Bisphenol A is not given too high expectations.

Downstream demand for acetone: in terms of acetone, the new capacity in the MMA and MIBK industries will have a positive impact on acetone demand, but the overall production time is relatively late.

Market Impact of Bisphenol A

in the first half of 2025, the market supply of bisphenol A showed a trend of tightening first and then loosening. In the first half of the year, only one set of 180000 tons/year bisphenol A plant was put into operation. From May to June, the industry's operating load gradually increased from 70% to slightly above 80%, reaching a new high in the past three years, and the industry's supply maintained a continuous increase trend.

After the Spring Festival, the terminal demand recovery is slow, the downstream epoxy resin and PC demand surface are not ideal, which constitutes a certain suppression of phenol demand.

changes in the pattern of import and export

with the continuous improvement of domestic phenol production, China's phenol trade deficit as a whole showed a narrowing trend, the degree of dependence outside the industry decreased year by year, 2024 has been from 20.05 percent in 2020 to about 4.38 percent.

In terms of import and export, the import volume of phenol ketone is expected to maintain the pattern of 2024, while the export volume is expected to grow moderately.

International market impact

changes in the global phenol supply pattern have an important impact on the domestic market. With the rapid growth of domestic production capacity, China is gradually changing from a net importer of phenol to a net exporter.

short-term price expectations

phenol market expectations: this week the phenol market is expected to be characterized by horizontal consolidation. Although the operation of the new device is stable and the supply will gradually increase, under the background of low terminal inventory, phenol short-term will still be mainly manifested by interval stalemate.

Price Forecast: it is expected that the price of phenol port shipments in East China will remain in the range of 6500-6600 yuan/ton this week.

acetone market prospects: the acetone market needs to focus on the extent to which increased supply affects prices. The current average contract price is located near 4840 yuan/ton. Considering the weak market pattern, the space for further sharp decline is relatively limited.

Price Forecast: it is expected that the price of acetone port in East China will fluctuate in the range of 4650-4700 yuan/ton this week.

medium and long term development trend

capacity expansion pressure: it is predicted that in the next five years, China's acetone consumption will show a growth trend, and the compound growth rate is expected to reach 7.9. However, the growth rate of production capacity may exceed the growth of demand, and the competition in the industry will be further intensified.

Industry chain integration: the future trend of industrial chain integration is obvious, the main downstream bisphenol A and MMA new devices continue to increase.