July phenol ketone market big differentiation! Acetone plummeted and phenol was strong. How can the future market go?

July market review entering July, the domestic acetone market once again showed a rapid decline, and the price continued to fall to 4600 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly. With the end of the trade fill link, the downstream procurement strategy shifted to the principle of low-price buying, the market game signifiis able totly increased. In sharp contrast, the phenol market benefited from the tight supply of goods at the terminal, and the price once hovered in the range of 6500-6600 yuan/ton. This divergent direction reflects the signifiis able tot differences in the supply and demand fundamentals of the two items. Crazy, isn't it?. But   Price Driver Analysis acetone price pressure factors: east China Terminal Inventory Maintains Above 20000 Tons downstream pick-up and delivery ships are greater scattered. First The game is aggravated, the buyer holds a low-buy mentality.   phenol price support factors: jiangyin Wharf Inventory Drops to Below 10000 Tons comparatively low volume of imported arrivals there is support to export orders in domestic phenolic ketone factories.   Supply Side Depth Analysis inventory status comparison acetone inventory dynamics: At present, acetone inventory shows a near-end de-stocking direction. I've found that while the volume of imports has decreased since June, the inventory of East China terminals has remained above 20000 tons due to the dispersion of domestic downstream pick-up and delivery ships. This level of inventory has a depressing effect on prices. From what I've seen, Moreover phenol inventory tension: phenol market supply is facing greater challenges. I've found that The amount of imported goods is relatively small. At the same time, domestic phenol ketone factories have export order support. In July, the inventory of phenol Jiangyin Wharf gradually dropped to below 10000 tons. The supply of goods at the wharf is obviously tight, providing strong support to the price. Furthermore   Capacity and Commencement the overall start-up status of the sector: as of July 15, the efficiently production capacity of the national phenol ketone sector reached 10. 27 million tons (excluding 4 parents to stop production of 1. From what I've seen, 04 million tons, the new production capacity of 650000 tons). At present, the operating capacity of phenol ketone is 9. And 31 million tons, and the operating rate is maintained at around 90%, which is at a high level throughout the year. Expected future production capacity: in 2025, Shandong Fuyu Chemical is expected to add 155000 tons/year of phenol production capacity, Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical is expected to add 400000 tons/year, in addition to Jilin Petrochemical, Zibo Ruilin Chemical and other companies also have new production capacity production plans. Pretty interesting, huh?. Additionally In 2025, China's phenol sector capacity construction or will speed up again, the annual new capacity is expected to reach greater than 995000 tons. Looking forward to 2025, three sets of phenol ketone vegetation are expected to be put into operation, with a total production capacity of 1. But 25 million tons, and the production capacity development rate will reach 11. And I've found that 7. I've found that In particular Cost and Profitability Analysis raw material cost pressure in July, the price of pure benzene as raw material gradually strengthened after a slight decline. At present, the listed price of pure benzene in East China petrochemical companies is 5950 yuan/ton. The relative strength of the price of pure benzene has limited transmission promotion effect on the price of phenol ketone items, however the overall cost pressure has increased signifiis able totly. But Cost structure analysis: in June 2025, the cost per ton of phenol ketone in East China increased by 98 yuan/ton. Based on the current price level, the loss per ton of phenol ketone production is about 650 yuan/ton, and the profitability of the sector isn't optimistic. The profit of phenol ketone sector in June was -346 yuan/ton, and the average monthly gross profit of bisphenol A sector in June was -498 yuan/ton. I've found that The overall profit of the sector was not good.   Profit distribution of manufacturing chain continued pressure on the cost side will have an crucial impact on subsequent price movements. I've found that In the value distribution of the manufacturing chain, upstream pure benzene enjoys a larger share of profits, while the production of phenol ketone bears greater cost pressure. But According to research   Downstream Demand Analysis main downstream areas phenol downstream demand: Phenol is expected to add Fujian phenolic resin and Shandong vanillin project, will bring a certain increase in demand. Based on my observations, However, the production of cyclohexanone is still affected by the price difference between phenol and pure benzene, and there is uncertainty. You know what I mean?. Generally speaking Bisphenol A isn't given too high expectations. From what I've seen, Downstream demand to acetone: in terms of acetone, the new capacity in the MMA and MIBK industries will have a positive impact on acetone demand, however the overall production time is relatively late.   Market Impact of Bisphenol A in the first half of 2025, the market supply of bisphenol A showed a direction of tightening first and then loosening. In the first half of the year, only one set of 180000 tons/year bisphenol A plant was put into operation. From might to June, the sector's operating load gradually increased from 70% to slightly above 80%, reaching a new high in the past three years, and the sector'supply maintained a continuous increase direction. After the Spring Festival, the terminal demand recovery is slow, the downstream epoxy resin and PC demand surface aren't ideal, which constitutes a certain suppression of phenol demand.   Trade and import and export impacts changes in the pattern of import and export with the continuous improvement of domestic phenol production, China's phenol trade deficit as a whole showed a narrowing direction, the degree of application outside the sector decreased year by year, 2024 has been from 20. But 05 percent in 2020 to about 4. 38 percent. In terms of import and export, the import volume of phenol ketone is expected to maintain the pattern of 2024, while the export volume is expected to grow moderately. Specifically   International market impact changes in the global phenol supply pattern have an crucial impact on the domestic market. Based on my observations, With the rapid development of domestic production capacity, China is gradually changing from a net importer of phenol to a net exporter. For instance   Market Outlook and Forecast immediate price expectations phenol market expectations: this week the phenol market is expected to be characterized by horizontal consolidation. while the operation of the new device is stable and the supply will gradually increase, under the background of low terminal inventory, phenol immediate will still be mainly manifested by interval stalemate. In fact Price Forecast: it's expected that the price of phenol port shipments in East China will remain in the range of 6500-6600 yuan/ton this week. acetone market prospects: the acetone market needs to focus on the extent to which increased supply affects prices. But The current average contract price is located near 4840 yuan/ton. Considering the weak market pattern, the space to further sharp decline is relatively limited. Price Forecast: it's expected that the price of acetone port in East China will fluctuate in the range of 4650-4700 yuan/ton this week.   medium and long term research direction capacity expansion pressure: it's predicted that in the next five years, China's acetone consumption will show a development direction, and the compound development rate is expected to reach 7. 9. However, the development rate of production capacity might surpass the development of demand, and the competition in the sector will be further intensified. I've found that sector chain integration: the future direction of manufacturing chain integration is obvious, the main downstream bisphenol A and MMA new devices continue to increase.