Can the frequency of negative electricity prices bring a new model of cost reduction to chemical production?

Interpretation of 1. phenomena: the new normal of the power market caused by the surplus of new energy.

At the beginning of 2026, an important phenomenon appeared in China's electricity market-the concentrated outbreak of negative electricity prices and zero electricity prices. This reflects the deep changes in the power supply and demand structure under the rapid growth of new energy, which deserves close attention from international chemical companies.

Three landmark events reveal the scale of the trend:

from January 1 to January 25 in Liaoning, the real-time electricity price reached the lower limit of * *-0.1 yuan/degree, with a cumulative time of more than 272 hours * *. In Henan, there was a 13-hour zero electricity price on February 15. The Guangdong market recorded a negative electricity price of * *-0.1119 yuan/degree on February 18, with noontime photovoltaic power generation superimposed on the holiday shutdown.

Consistency of core causes is critical: demand for electricity fell sharply during specific periods (e. g., industrial shutdowns during the Spring Festival and high noontime PV periods), while new energy generation such as wind power and photovoltaics continued to grow. When supply far exceeds demand, power generation companies prefer to discount or reverse electricity prices rather than leave units idle or abandoned-which is inherently economically rational.

What needs to be clarified is that, negative electricity prices have not changed the average user electricity bill.. Residential electricity prices are "packaged" (including electricity, transmission and distribution, and fund fees), and more than 90% of industrial electricity has been locked in through long-term contracts, and the spot market transaction volume is less than 10%. The real beneficiaries of negative electricity prices are high-pressure grade large industrial users.

Conditions for 2. Participation and Practical Opportunities for Chemical Enterprises

core qualification threshold: two conditions are indispensable

condition one: high pressure large industrial user qualification

the capacity of the transformer must reach **≥ 315 kVA** (or directly connected to the high-voltage motor), and the power consumption is industrial production. This means for chemical companies:

• wide range of process types directly benefiting: Caustic soda/chlor-alkali production (electrolysis), calcium carbide furnace, yellow phosphorus furnace and other high-temperature devices, ceramic/new material furnace, electric heating cracking furnace belong to the "electricity as power" industrial use.
• Public and auxiliary systems are also included in the scope: Air separation unit, circulating water system, sewage treatment station and other infrastructure electricity can enjoy
• 250 kilovolt-ampere "trap": Even if engaged in the same industrial activities, the capacity difference of 50 kVA will be classified as a general industrial and commercial category with higher electricity prices, and all preferential qualifications will be directly lost.

Condition two: deep valley time window

each province independently designated "deep valley period" (new energy peak, low demand period), to give the maximum electricity price concessions. Specific settings vary by locale:

• shandong: 11:00-14:00, the deep valley electricity price will drop by 90% on the basis of the trough, and can be as low as 0.2-0.25 yuan/degree in some periods.
• Hubei: 9:00-15:00 during the long holiday
• hebei: May 12:00-15:00 (adjusted with season)
• anhui: legal holidays 11:00-15:00 noon

actual cost reduction potential of chemical enterprises

the case of Lutianhua is the most valuable reference-through basic electricity charge calculation method flexible choice between (transformer capacity vs. actual maximum demand), save electricity 1.067 million yuan per month. This shows that the cost optimization space not only comes from the negative electricity price itself, but also includes the optimization of the charging structure.

For chemical enterprises, the key to the two-part tariff mechanism is that the fixed basic tariff covers the cost of the power grid, and the electricity tariff is the scope of the deep valley discount. Power generation companies dare to offer competitive discounts at specific times because of the guarantee of basic electricity charges.

3. Strategic Recommendations and Prospects

core actions for conditional chemical enterprises:

1. qualification investigation: Confirm whether the transformer capacity is ≥ 315 kVA, and do not underestimate the influence of "boundary effect"
2. regional Policy Research: Grasp the setting and dynamic adjustment of the deep valley schedule in your province.
3. production scheduling optimization: Concentrate high power consumption processes such as electrolysis, air separation, circulating water, etc., which can be flexibly transferred to the deep valley period.

Market prospects: the proportion of new energy installations in China continues to rise, and the frequency and duration of deep valley electricity prices are expected to increase further. For large-scale chemical companies, this is a stable and predictable cost reduction mechanism, rather than a short-term window.