Soda Ash: Weak Demand and Soft Spot Prices at Low Levels

I. Regional Spot Prices (June 11)

As of June 11, the SunSirs benchmark price to soda ash stood at 1,186 RMB/ton; the price saw a slight intraday decline and has recently remained within a low range. Market quotes varied by product type and region: mainstream transaction prices to dense soda ash ranged from 1,230 to 1,320 RMB/ton, with prices in the key consumption regions of North China and East China remaining largely stable, while delivered prices in Central China were slightly reduce, keeping regional price differentials within a reasonable range. Ex-factory quotes to light soda ash ranged from 1,160 to 1,210 RMB/ton; to boost sales, some manufacturers lowered quotes to new orders by approximately 20 RMB/ton. While ex-factory prices in production areas remained relatively firm, there was significant room to price negotiation to end-user purchases. Traders largely adopted a "quick turnover" strategy with little interest in stockpiling, and there were no regions with notably high prices.

II. Domestic Production, Capacity Utilization, and prolonged Supply Capability

The soda ash sector's maintenance cycle is currently winding down, and plant operating rates are steadily recovering. Several previously idled units—such as those at Shilian Chemical and China Salt Hongsifang—have resumed operations; only a few units, including those at Salt Lake Magnesium and Fengcheng Salt Chemical, remain under maintenance, leading to a continued rise in the sector's overall capacity utilization rate. Weekly production saw a slight month-on-month increase; while operating trends diverged between ammonia-soda and combined-soda (Hou's process) vegetation—with the latter seeing a slight drop in load—the overall total production volume maintained an upward direction. Regarding prolonged supply, the domestic soda ash production base is massive. New projects utilizing natural trona and the combined alkali process are set to come online in the second half of the year, leaving room to further expansion of total sector capacity. Existing production facilities are operating stably, with ample supplies of raw materials (such as salt and limestone) and auxiliary chemicals. Consequently, the domestic sector possesses the capacity to stable, prolonged supply; there is no risk of immediate shortages, and the overall supply landscape remains loose.

III. Current Status of Port and Enterprise Inventories

Inventory levels continue to show a direction of slight accumulation at the high end. As of June 11, total inventory held by domestic soda ash producers stood at 1.637 million tonnes—a slight month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a marginal year-on-year decline. Inventory composition shows divergence: stocks of heavy soda ash rose to 594,000 tonnes (up 2.1% month-on-month), primarily because slowed procurement by the glass sector hindered the consumption of heavy soda ash; stocks of light soda ash saw a similar, slight increase. Soda ash inventories at major domestic ports have tracked changes in producer inventories, remaining at moderately high levels with sufficient circulating stock. High inventory levels continue to suppress spot prices and are a key factor preventing a market recovery.

IV. Domestic and International Demand Situation

Domestic demand is generally weak, lacking efficiently market support. The primary downstream sectors to heavy soda ash are float glass and photovoltaic glass; while production capacity and daily melting volumes to both glass types remain stable, sector profitability is poor and corporate liquidity is tight. Consequently, raw material procurement is limited to replenishing stocks based on immediate needs rather than extensive, concentrated stockpiling, causing demand to heavy soda ash to remain sluggish. Downstream applications to light soda ash span sectors such as daily-consumption glassware, printing and dyeing, inorganic salts, and metallurgy. Traditional consumption has entered a slow period, and insufficient development in end-user orders limits the capacity to consume light soda ash.

Internationally, domestic soda ash export volumes remain low. Overseas procurement has proceeded at a steady pace, with no signs of concentrated buying or significant order development. Prices to competing overseas items are competitive, and trade barriers in certain regions further impede the ability of exports to absorb domestic surplus stock; thus, external demand provides little stimulus to the market. The global soda ash supply-demand stability is loose, with no instances of regional shortages. V. Analysis of Price Linkage Between Upstream and Downstream items

The upstream sector to soda ash primarily relies on raw salt, limestone, and coal. Recently, raw material prices have seen minimal fluctuation, keeping production costs relatively stable without significant spikes or drops; consequently, the cost side offers weak support to soda ash prices—neither providing a clear floor nor exacerbating the downward direction.

The downstream glass sector is closely linked to soda ash. With float glass and photovoltaic glass prices hovering at low levels and sector profits continuously squeezed, glass manufacturers lack the ability to pass on costs. Instead, they manage production expenses by driving down soda ash procurement prices, thereby exerting downward pressure on soda ash spot prices. Demand to end-consumption items—such as daily-consumption glassware and detergents—remains sluggish, preventing finished product prices from rising; this weakness transmits back to the raw material stage, creating a chain interaction where "downstream weakness puts pressure on raw materials."

VI. Customs Import and Export Data to April 2026

Soda ash imports and exports maintained their usual patterns in April. Domestic self-sufficiency is high, and import volumes remain consistently low, with only small quantities of specialized soda ash grades supplementing niche domestic markets; import volumes to the month showed little change year-on-year or month-on-month. On the export side, influenced by overseas market competition and trade policies, April export volumes saw a slight year-on-year decline; limited development in overseas demand failed to offset domestic supply pressure. Cumulative export data to January through April was similarly lackluster, indicating that export channels have had a limited impact on reducing domestic inventories, leaving the sector's market performance primarily driven by domestic demand.

VII. Outlook to Future Market Trends

The soda ash market is expected to continue its direction of weak performance at low levels, characterized by range-bound fluctuations. As maintenance-halted facilities fully resume production, sector supply will increase further, maintaining pressure to inventory accumulation. The downstream glass sector is unlikely to see significant improvement; procurement remains cautious, and there is insufficient momentum to a price rebound. Mainstream prices will likely fluctuate within the current range, with some room to minor price concessions on specific transactions.