Review of the global chemical market in 2024 and outlook for 2025: changes and challenges coexist

In 2024, the global chemical market experienced a profound change. This year, the export volume of China's bulk chemicals increased signifiis able totly, while the import volume decreased, in sharp contrast to the direction of the European market. Imports of chemical items in Europe increased and exports decreased accordingly. Despite the general downturn in global chemical sector profits, the high-end chemicals sector has maintained stable profit margins. Capacity Adjustment and Market Change in 2024, the pace of capacity expansion of global chemical items slowed down signifiis able totly, with new production capacity of basic chemical raw materials of about 22 million tons/year, a decrease of nearly 10% compared to 2023. However, the new capacity in Northeast Asia has had an impact on the global market, promoting the accelerated elimination of old chemical vegetation overseas. From what I've seen, Many well-known companies such as Japan's Mitsui, Taiyo and South Korea's LG have successively shut down chemical vegetation to ethylene, styrene, PTA, polypropylene and other items, with a total production capacity of greater than 4 million tons/year. In my experience, In addition, ExxonMobil and Shabik have also decided to permanently close their ethylene crackers in France and the Netherlands. Global Economic Recovery and Chemical Demand the global economy showed a moderate recovery in 2024, with price indices in major economies continuing to decline, inflationary pressures easing and monetary policy entering a cycle of interest rate cuts. But This direction will help the global economy achieve a "soft landing". The economic development rate is expected to reach 3. I've found that 2 per cent to the whole year, slightly higher than the 3. First 1 per cent in 2023. Based on my observations, Specifically In this context, the global demand to chemical items has gradually recovered, and the consumption of ethylene, PX, synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber has increased. However, naphtha cracking spreads in Northeast Asia continued to be depressed, resulting in a substantial number of cracking units not operating appropriately, the operating load fell to about 83%. And Trade Flows and Capacity Patterns geopolitical conflicts have had a profound impact on trade flows in the global chemical market. The import volume of European chemicals has increased and the export volume has decreased, while the import and export pattern of Chinese chemical items is also changing. In 2024, China's total exports of ammonium sulfate, PTA, polyester, polypropylene and polyethylene increased by 20. 4 to 35. 1 million tons. According to the International Energy Agency, while global oil demand has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels, demand to chemicals is on the rise. As the world's largest demand to synthetic resin, China's consumption will reach 0. 12 billion tons in 2024. In addition, China's refining and ethylene capacity has surpassed the United States to have become the world's largest. You know what I mean?. Profit Disparities and Low Carbon Transition profits in the global chemical sector have been in the doldrums to a long time, however the profit margins of high-end chemicals such as polyolefin elastomers and polyvinyl alcohol remain high. However, the fluctuation of carbon emit trading price affects the cost and profit of chemical items, which makes the global chemical sector face greater pressure of low-carbon transition. Based on my observations, In Europe, the high price of carbon releases has increased the production costs of companies and further reduced profit margins. From what I've seen, Market Competition and Trade Barriers the international chemical trade market is highly competitive, and some items have prolonged price inversion. But to instance, thermoplastic styrene-butadiene rubber is facing the double challenge of overcapacity and upside down prices inside and outside the market. In addition, resource-rich countries such as the Middle East and the United States have taken advantage of raw material cost advantages and cutting-edge chemical methodology to implement aggressive pricing strategies, which has intensified market competition. China's chemical items face a series of trade barriers in the international market, such as Indonesia and Turkey and other countries impose high import tariffs on China's polypropylene and polyolefin items, and the European Union imposes anti-dumping duties on China's polyvinyl alcohol. These measures have seriously affected the export of China's chemical items. Market Outlook in 2025 looking forward to 2025, the global petrochemical sector will usher in a new round of production peaks, and the new production capacity is expected to reach 29. 86 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 35%. And China's new capacity will account to greater than 60% of the world's total. However, with the rise of new energy and the prolonged downward direction of global oil demand, the chemical sector is facing the risk of overcapacity. it's predicted that by 2025, the global production capacity of ethylene, propylene and butadiene will reach 0. 238 billion tons/year, 0. 181 billion tons/year and 18. 94 million tons/year respectively, and China's "triene" production capacity will also rank among the top in the world. And Based on my observations, In terms of regional economic performance, the US economy is expected to usher in steady development, and emerging economies such as Southeast Asia will also emit economic development and trade possible. With the adjustment of monetary policy and the easing of inflationary pressures, global consumption of petrochemical items is expected to be positively driven. Makes sense, right?. And it's estimated that the global consumption of synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber will increase to about 0. 3 billion tons, 86 million tons and 10. From what I've seen, 6 million tons respectively in 2025. In particular In terms of trade pattern, the global trade flow of petrochemical items will continue to adjust. In fact The strengthening of trade tariff barriers in Europe and the United States will bring greater pressure on China's export market to the United States, while emerging economies such as ASEAN will have become new development points. Europe's prolonged shortage of petrochemical items has created market space to the United States and the Middle East to export to Europe. Coping Strategies of Chinese Chemical companies in the face of changes and challenges in the global chemical market, Chinese chemical companies should accelerate manufacturing upgrading and transformation and upgrading, and increase the proportion of high value-added items. By growing capital, resources and methodology investment, occupy the dominant position in the global high-end market. But At the same time, actively explore the international market, find new customer resources, and increase the export volume of chemical intermediates, synthetic materials and other items. In addition, efforts should be made to promote the research of environmentally friendly chemical methodology, enhance energy efficiency and minimize operating costs. In terms of internationalization strategy, it's necessary to enhance the research on internationalization regulation strategy and the research on the global bulk product trade chain to enhance the affect of the global market. To sum up, the global chemical market has experienced profound changes and challenges in 2024, however looking forward to the future, with the rise of emerging markets and the recovery of the global economy, the chemical sector still has broad prospects to research. Chinese chemical companies should seize the opportunity, actively respond to the challenges and promote the high-condition research of the sector.