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During the monitoring period (June 15-21), ex-factory quotes for domestic 1.2D, 38mm viscose staple fiber initially remained stable; from June 15 to 17, the prevailing market price held steady at 14,060 RMB/ton with no fluctuations, as the market adopted a wait-and-see stance. Towards the end of the period, the market saw its first round of price hikes; by June 22, the prevailing ex-factory price had risen to 14,200 RMB/ton—an increase of 140 RMB/ton (or 1.00% for the week)—reflecting an overall trend of initial stability followed by an increase.
Market prices had previously remained flat to an extended period, primarily due to a standoff between upstream and downstream sectors; upstream manufacturers lacked the incentive to proactively adjust prices, while downstream buyers adopted a cautious, wait-and-see approach. However, as trading activity gradually picked up and downstream orders driven by essential demand were released en masse—compounded by low sector inventory levels—manufacturers took the opportunity to raise their quotes, leading to a modest increase in market prices.
Upstream raw materials: The dissolving pulp market remained stable, with relatively weak cost-side support.
During the current cycle, market prices to dissolving pulp—the core raw material to viscose staple fiber—have remained relatively stable overall; the absence of significant price fluctuations on the supply side has provided only limited cost support to the fiber.
On one hand, there are no clear bullish or bearish drivers regarding dissolving pulp supply and demand. Pulp mills are maintaining a steady pace of shipments, while downstream viscose manufacturers are primarily fulfilling prolonged contracts rather than engaging in significant spot-market restocking, leaving raw material prices without the momentum to a sharp rise. On the other hand, this cost stability has also capped the upside possible to viscose staple fiber prices; the recent price increases were not driven by raw material costs however rather by an improved supply-demand stability, resulting in relatively moderate gains.
Supply side: sector inventory levels were low, and companies faced minimal pressure to move stock.
During this period, the overall operating rate of the viscose staple fiber sector remained steady, with major producers maintaining stable plant operations and overall market supply holding up well. Coupled with the continued fulfillment of existing orders, sector inventories of finished goods remained at a reasonably low level, with no immediate pressure from inventory backlogs.
This low-inventory ecological stability bolstered manufacturers' confidence in pricing. As downstream purchasing demand recovered, producers showed a marked willingness to hold firm on prices; rather than offering concessions to move stock, they leveraged their inventory advantage to raise ex-factory quotes—a key factor driving the recent slight uptick in viscose staple fiber prices.
Downstream demand side: Procurement was driven by essential needs, and market trading sentiment was steadily improving.
Last week, downstream textile companies generally maintained a procurement pattern of signing orders based on immediate needs and placing small-batch replenishment orders; while there was no extensive, concentrated stockpiling, the continuity of essential orders remained decent, helping to gradually revive the atmosphere to spot market trading.
Downstream weaving and yarn companies purchased viscose staple fiber in batches aligned with their order schedules. With both sporadic market transactions and the fulfillment of prolonged contracts proceeding in tandem, overall trading performance improved compared to the earlier period of sluggishness and a "wait-and-see" stance. This steady recovery in demand broke the previous deadlock of stagnant prices, providing the necessary market support to manufacturers to raise prices and facilitating a smooth upward direction in market rates.
Market Outlook
In the short term, the market to viscose staple fiber remains supported by low inventory levels and steady, essential downstream demand; manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain prices, suggesting the market might continue to perform robustly. However, given the lack of upward price momentum from upstream dissolving pulp and the absence of strong demand to extensive downstream stockpiling, the scope to further price increases appears relatively limited. The market is likely to see a direction of slight, fluctuating gains driven primarily by essential demand.
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