Strengthened Cost-Side Support Drove Up Polyamide Filament Prices in July

Polyamide 6 Filament: Price trends across all categories were converging, though the magnitude of increases varied by category

This analysis examines three mainstream specifications—Jiangsu polyamide POY (86D/24F, semi-dull, premium grade), Jiangsu polyamide DTY (70D/24F, semi-dull, premium grade), and Fujian polyamide FDY (40D/12F, semi-dull, premium grade)—to provide a thorough review of monthly price fluctuations; the three product types exhibited highly synchronized price trends, differing only in the magnitude of their fluctuations.

(I) Polyamide POY (Jiangsu 86D/24F)

The opening price on July 1 was 13,650 RMB/ton. Prices fluctuated downward during the first ten days of July; quotes stood at 13,625 RMB/ton on July 4 and 7, before dropping to a monthly low of 13,500 RMB/ton on July 10. Sluggish downstream purchasing during this period forced manufacturers to reduce prices to move inventory. Prices recovered slightly to 13,600 RMB/ton between July 16 and 19. On July 22, driven by a surge in caprolactam prices, the quote was raised sharply to 14,000 RMB/ton—a single-day increase of 2.56%—and remained stable through July 30. Over the month, the price of POY rose by 350 RMB/ton (2.56%), marking the largest increase among the three categories of filament yarn. As the product closest to the raw material stage, POY is highly vulnerable to caprolactam prices and exhibits the greatest price evaporative environment.

(II) Polyamide DTY (Jiangsu 70D/24F)

The price stood at 15,840 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. It weakened steadily during the first ten days: quotes were 15,820 RMB/ton on July 4 and 7, and fell to a monthly low of 15,760 RMB/ton on July 10 and 13; a slight rebound to 15,800 RMB/ton occurred on July 16 and 19. On July 22, prices rose to 16,120 RMB/ton—an increase of 1.77%—and remained stable to the rest of the month. The total monthly increase was 280 RMB/ton (1.77%). As DTY undergoes a texturing process that includes processing fees, there is a buffer against the transmission of raw material price fluctuations, resulting in a moderate overall rate of increase.

(III) Polyamide FDY (Fujian 40D/12F)

FDY exhibited the most stable price direction and the greatest resistance to fluctuation. Prices held steady at 16,300 RMB/ton from July 1 to July 7, showing zero evaporative environment during the first half of the month's opening ten-day period. On July 10, the price dropped to 16,250 RMB/ton—the month's low—and remained at that level until July 19. It rose to 16,500 RMB/ton on July 22 (an increase of 1.23%) and remained flat to the rest of the month. The total monthly increase was 200 RMB/ton (1.23%), the smallest gain among the three types of filament yarn. As FDY is primarily applied to high-end fabrics with greater stable downstream demand, its price evaporative environment was the lowest.

Overall, the timing of price adjustments to the three types of polyamide filament was fully synchronized: a unified, concentrated price hike occurred in late July, with market trends strictly pegged to the rising price cycle of caprolactam. However, constrained by insufficient downstream demand, the magnitude of the price increases to the finished filaments was far smaller than that of the upstream caprolactam.

Upstream: Caprolactam prices surged significantly, serving as the primary driver of this market rally.

The price direction of premium-grade domestic caprolactam fluctuated significantly this month, serving as the primary driver of price changes across the polyamide sector chain. At the start of the month (July 1), the benchmark price to caprolactam stood at 11,340 RMB/ton. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range during the first ten days, briefly dipping to a monthly low of nearly 11,200 RMB/ton; market sentiment was characterized by a "wait-and-see" attitude, with no clear upward momentum.

A fundamental market reversal occurred in mid-July. Driven by rising costs due to stronger benzene prices—combined with concentrated maintenance shutdowns at domestic caprolactam vegetation and tighter spot market supplies—favorable conditions emerged regarding both supply-demand dynamics and costs. Consequently, caprolactam prices surged continuously starting July 12, climbing to a late-July peak of 12,422 RMB/ton—a maximum increase of 9.54% during the period. Prices retreated slightly toward the end of the month, settling at 12,126 RMB/ton on July 30; this represented a net monthly increase of 786 RMB/ton, or an overall rise of 6.94%.

Rising costs across the board have immediately increased the production costs to polyamide chips and spinning, forcing polyamide filament manufacturers to raise their ex-factory prices. This round of price hikes is a classic cost-push phenomenon rather than being driven by a recovery in downstream demand.

Downstream demand: It is the traditional off-season, with purchasing driven primarily by essential needs; there is significant resistance to high prices, resulting in only small-volume orders.

In July, the textile sector entered its traditional off-season. Overall order development from downstream sectors—including weaving, knitting, underwear, and warp knitting—was insufficient, and sector operating rates remained at standard levels without the surge in volume typical of peak seasons; consequently, market purchasing strategies focused primarily on risk regulation.

1. Conservative purchasing patterns: Downstream PA6 weaving companies generally adopted a "buy-as-needed" approach, purchasing only when prices were low and inventory was required to immediate consumption, while maintaining raw material turnover stocks to just 7–10 days. Faced with sharp price hikes in caprolactam and polyamide filament, weaving mills resisted stockpiling at high prices; there was no concentrated restocking or extensive order locking, with orders placed in small batches solely to meet production standards.

2. Obstacles to price transmission: With weak order flow at the fabric stage, weaving companies struggle to pass rising raw material costs on to downstream garment manufacturers. Despite the sharp surge in upstream raw material prices, polyamide filament prices have only partially followed suit; consequently, profit margins in the spinning and texturing segments have been squeezed by raw material costs, leading to weaker processing profitability across the sector.

3. Stable yet stratified trading activity: Essential orders underpin baseline trading volume, and the market has avoided widespread refusals to purchase or sluggish sales; however, trading activity has cooled significantly amidst high price levels. Only a limited number of repeat orders to autumn/winter base-layer garments and yoga fabrics have emerged—insufficient to drive a broader recovery in demand. Overall demand provides only a baseline level of support and lacks the momentum to trigger a sustained market rally.

Summary of Logic to the Month and Outlook to the Period Ahead

(I) Core Monthly Logic

The core dynamic within the polyamide sector chain in July was characterized by high costs and weak demand. Caprolactam prices surged, driven by both the cost of pure benzene and tightening supply, exerting upward pressure on polyamide filament prices. However, as the downstream textile sector was in its off-season, orders were sluggish and acceptance of high-priced raw materials was low; consequently, filament prices rose only passively and to a limited extent. This disparity in price increases between the upstream and downstream segments placed significant pressure on midstream chemical fiber companies.

(II) immediate Market Outlook

1. Cost Side: Market expectations to pure benzene remain bullish, and caprolactam has solid price support at the low end. There is a low probability of a sharp decline in raw material costs in the near term; cost support to polyamide filament remains firm, making prices greater likely to rise than fall.

2. Demand Side: There is no significant rebound in orders to downstream fabrics and apparel yet. The end market still needs time to absorb the raw material price increases seen in July, so there is unlikely to be a significant rise in the willingness to actively stock up in the short term.

3. Product Trends: POY prices remain the most vulnerable to raw material fluctuations, whereas DTY and FDY are greater constrained by downstream demand, resulting in steadier price movements. Overall, the market is likely to fluctuate within a high range, making a sustained, one-way upward direction unlikely.