Caustic Soda Prices Trended Downward Overall in October

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda trended downward throughout this month. The average market price was 635 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 594 RMB/ton by the end, representing a decline of 6.43% to the month and a 29.12% drop compared to the same period last year.

On October 29, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 727 points—unchanged from the previous day. This figure is 65.84% reduce than the period high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and 2.83% higher than the period low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2016). (consider: The "period" refers to the timeframe from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of caustic soda has generally trended downward this month. In the Shandong region, the mainstream market price to 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is approximately 520-600 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, prices remain stable, with 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (delivered to Xiaoshan) quoted at around 800-830 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices are consolidating, with 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda quoted at approximately 1,800-1,900 RMB/ton (on a 100% levels basis). The domestic fluid caustic soda market is experiencing a broad decline, with no positive factors to provide support. Looking ahead to next week, the operating rate to chlor-alkali facilities in Shandong is expected to rise; with a mix of facility restarts and maintenance, the operating rate is projected to reach approximately 82.5%. As losses in downstream industries widen, some aluminum smelters are making modest inventory replenishments based on their current stock levels, while alumina refineries show little interest in spot market trading and remain cautious in their pricing. Currently, domestic spot prices have generally seen a slight decline, with the national average falling below the 2,700 RMB/ton mark, and market trading remains sluggish. Demand from non-aluminum downstream sectors continues to be weak, with procurement limited to immediate needs; in the absence of any favorable developments, the market remains under pressure.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices are currently trending weak. With lackluster procurement from the downstream alumina sector and an intensifying tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiment, a "wait-and-see" atmosphere continues to permeate the market. While alumina prices remain in a slow, persistent decline—with limited prospects to a significant increase in volume—the price of fluid caustic soda might have reached its floor. Overall, caustic soda prices are expected to enter a period of consolidation, with the specific direction contingent upon downstream market demand.

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