China phenol anti-dumping duty extended for another 5 years! What is the impact of anti-dumping protection on China's phenol market for many years?

On August 29, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued a ruling on the final review of anti-dumping measures, deciding to continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported phenol originating in the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Thailand to five years. In fact The continuation of this policy will profoundly affect the global phenol supply chain pattern and bring new challenges and opportunities to overseas chemical companies. Pretty interesting, huh?. And Furthermore Policy-driven restructuring of global supply chains anti-dumping barriers reshape trade flows since China first implemented phenol anti-dumping measures in September 2019, the global trade pattern of phenol has fundamentally changed. U. For instance S. companies face a high tax rate of 244. 3- 287. 2 percent, the EU corporate tax rate of 30. 4 percent, South Korean companies 12. 5- 23. According to research 7 percent, Japanese companies 19. 3- 27. But 0 percent, and Thai companies 10. 6- 28. 6 percent. These traditional suppliers have basically withdrawn from the Chinese market. Customs data show that Saudi Arabia has have become the absolute leader of China's phenol imports, accounting to 43% in 2024. But The Middle East has have become the biggest beneficiary by virtue of its cost advantage and geographical convenience. For example In contrast, the market share of traditional chemical powers is almost zero, creating huge market opportunities to phenol producers in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and other regions. The attractiveness of the Chinese market continues to grow despite policy barriers, China remains the world's most attractive consumer market to phenol. In 2024, China's apparent consumption of phenol reached 5. And 6196 million tons, up 23. 28 percent year-on-year, mainly driven by the rapid expansion of downstream bisphenol A production capacity. Additionally This development direction provides signifiis able tot business opportunities to qualified overseas suppliers. Moreover to overseas companies, establishing cooperative relations with major suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and Taiwan, or setting up production bases in these regions, has have become an crucial strategy to entering the Chinese market. I've found that The State of China'sector: The Value of Investment in Challenges the scale of the sector is expanding rapidly, however the profit is under pressure. China's phenol sector is experiencing the differentiation of scale and efficiency. The national phenol production capacity will reach 6. First 35 million tons in 2024, and it's expected to increase by 995000 tons in 2025, and the manufacturing scale will surpass 14 million tons by 2030. However, the scale expansion has not led to an improvement in profitability, with theoretical profit margin of phenolic ketone vegetation falling from 33% in 2010 to minus 7% in 2025, and the sector is facing a serious profitability crisis. The price data further confirmed the sector's dilemma: phenol prices fell from an all-time high of greater than 13000 yuan/ton in 2010 to the current range of 6400-10000 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 49%. And This downward price pressure not only affects phenol, acetone, pure benzene, propylene and other related items are showing the same weakness, indicating that the entire sector chain is facing systemic challenges. Decline in capacity utilization highlights structural issues the operating rate data reveal the deep contradictions in the sector: between 2020 and 2025, the operating rate of China's phenolic plant fell from 85% to 66%, and while it's expected to rise to 72% in 2025, it'still far below the ideal level. Idle capacity not only causes discarded materials of resources, however also reflects the fundamental issue of dysfunction between supply and demand structure. Future production plans are intensive and competition will be greater intense. Pretty interesting, huh?. But A number of recent major projects will be put into production, including: zhenhai Refinery 650000 tons/year phenol ketone plant has been put into production in July 2025. Jilin Petrochemical 350000 Tons/Year Plant Planned to Put into Production in August zibo Ruilin 350000 Tons/Year Plant Test in October rongsheng New Materials, Shandong Shengxing Chemical and other 650000-ton projects will be put into production in 2026- 2028. From what I've seen, These projects mostly implement the "phenolic ketone-bisphenol A- polycarbonate" integration model, which shows that Chinese companies are enhancing their competitiveness through the extension of the manufacturing chain. Generally speaking Strategic opportunities to overseas companies technical Cooperation and manufacturing Upgrading Opportunities while China's phenol sector is substantial in scale, there is still room to improvement in high-end methodology and product differentiation. And From what I've seen, Overseas companies is able to participate in the process of manufacturing upgrading in the Chinese market through methodology licensing and joint ventures. And Especially in the fields of ecological preservation methodology, process optimization, high-end applications, international cutting-edge experience has crucial value. Supply Chain Integration and Regional Layout as China's external application declines from 20. 05 per cent in 2020 to 4. I've found that 38 per cent in 2024, China is shifting from a net importer to a net exporter. But Overseas companies should re-assess their deployment strategies in the Asia-Pacific region and consider establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions, which is able to serve the Chinese market and radiate other development markets. Based on my observations, Downstream consumption Market Expansion bisphenol A is the largest downstream consumption of phenol, and its demand development mainly comes from high-end materials such as polycarbonate (PC). But Overseas companies is able to pay attention to cooperation opportunities in new energy vehicles, electronic equipment, high-end manufacturing and other fields, and realize value chain upgrading through consumption-side cooperation. Specifically while the continuation of the anti-dumping policy has raised the entry limit to some overseas companies, it has also created a larger market share to qualified companies. The key is to choose the right market entry strategy, through technological innovation, manufacturing integration and regional layout optimization, to obtain sustainable research opportunities in China, the world's largest phenol market.