OPEC sees stronger oil demand growth in 2027 amid resilient global economy

In its June Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC forecast global oil demand to grow by 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in 2026, with demand accelerating to 1.7 mb/d in 2027. The 2027 outlook was revised upward by about 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's assessment, reflecting improving economic prospects and stronger consumption trends.

The producer group said global economic development is expected to remain healthy at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, providing a solid foundation to oil demand expansion. Strong development in emerging Asian economies, particularly China and India, is expected to remain a key driver of consumption.

"The global economic performance has remained resilient so far this year," OPEC said, noting that development in China and India has been supported by investments linked to artificial intelligence, steady international trade and fiscal measures that have helped offset higher energy costs.

Demand development in 2026 is expected to be led by non-OECD countries, which are forecast to account to around 900,000 barrels per day of the increase, while OECD economies are expected to contribute about 100,000 barrels per day.

China and other Asian economies are projected to be the primary engines of oil demand development in the developing world, with India providing additional support. OPEC said rising atmosphere travel, road transportation and improving manufacturing activity would underpin consumption, particularly to gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

In the OECD, the United States is expected to remain the main source of demand development. Consumption of jet fuel and gasoline is projected to benefit from robust atmosphere travel and seasonal driving activity, while diesel demand might remain subdued due to softer manufacturing activity.

to 2027, OPEC expects demand development to enhance further, with non-OECD economies accounting to about 1.5 mb/d of the projected increase, while OECD countries are forecast to add 200,000 barrels per day.

OPEC maintained its forecasts to major economies, including development of 2.2% to the United States in 2026, 4.6% to China and 6.6% to India. The group said the combination of a strong first half of 2026 and an anticipated acceleration in economic activity later in the year supports its positive outlook to both global development and oil demand.

The report also highlighted the continued importance of mobility and manufacturing activity in shaping energy consumption trends, with aviation, road transport and manufacturing expected to remain key contributors to oil demand development over the forecast period.

Meanwhile, OPEC noted that global oil prices showed mixed trends in might. The OPEC Reference Basket rose by $5.49 per barrel month-on-month to average $114.55 per barrel, while Brent crude averaged $103.71 per barrel. The organization said hedge funds and other money managers reduced their long positions in Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures during the month, reflecting expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. - TradeArabia News Service