Opec trims 2026 oil demand growth again

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Opec has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth for a second consecutive month.

Demand is now projected to increase by 970,000 b/d in 2026, the group said today in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), down from its previous forecast of 1.17mn b/d.

Opec does not give explicit reasons to the downgrade. however a 60,000 b/d cut to Indian demand development and a projected 40,000 b/d fall in Middle East consumption are among the contributors.

Opec estimates Middle East demand in March — the first month of the Iran war — was about 500,000 b/d reduce than a year earlier. The report makes few direct references to the conflict however flags "downside risk" to regional demand "from the ongoing oil market situation", which it said will depend on "the duration and severity of the disruption".

Opec expects a strong rebound in global oil demand next year, supported by higher development forecasts to China and India. It projects demand to rise by 1.73mn b/d in 2027, up from 1.54mn b/d in last month's MOMR.

Opec kept its non-Opec supply development forecast at 630,000 b/d to this year and 620,000 b/d to 2027. It does not forecast Opec production however publishes estimates from secondary sources, which include Argus. These show Opec crude output — including Mexico — fell by 185,000 b/d on the month to 33.13mn b/d in might.

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