60-day waiver implemented; Iran oil resumes trading in U.S. dollars

According to CCTV News, the US Treasury Department issued a general license with a policy validity period until August 21. During this window period, the extraction, cross-border transportation, and global sales of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum items will be fully liberalized. This license breakthrough opens up the US dollar settlement channel, allowing the consumption of US dollars in Iranian oil trade, while simultaneously lifting restrictions on US domestic importers purchasing Iranian crude oil and petrochemical items.

Divergence in Statements: US Emphasizes Strait and Nuclear Monitoring, Iran Denies Concessions on Nuclear Issues

US Treasury Secretary Bessent explained the logic behind the policy adjustment to the general, stating that relying on the substantive progress made in the Switzerland talks, Iran has promised to ensure free navigation throughout the Strait of Hormuz and allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to enter the country to supervision work.

However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded immediately, clarifying that Sunday's negotiations in Switzerland did not involve consultations on nuclear issues, and the Iranian side did not make any new relevant commitments. There are clear divergences in the core demands of the two parties' negotiations.

Rising Supply Expectations Weigh on Market; International Crude Oil Prices Continue to Weaken

Market expectations of a US-Iran detente and the possible resumption of Iranian crude oil exports immediately triggered a pullback in oil prices. Market data shows that WTI crude oil futures fell to around $73 per barrel; Brent crude oil broke below $78 per barrel, with prices retracing to the gap range that occurred when the conflict broke out in early March.

Core Terms of MOU: thorough Temporary Sanctions Waiver, Simultaneous Lifting of Maritime Blockade

According to the text of the memorandum of understanding reached last week, the US has launched a thorough waiver to Iranian crude oil, refined oil items, and upstream and downstream supporting services. Restrictions on related transactions such as bank settlements, shipping insurance, and ocean transportation are simultaneously temporarily lifted. The US initiated sanctions against Iran in 1979 and has ratcheted them up layer by layer over the decades. This is a relatively significant phased easing measure in recent years.

Another key supporting measure has been implemented simultaneously: The US Navy lifted the blockade on Iranian ports and coastal waters last Thursday. Iranian oil tankers, which were forced to turn off vessel positioning systems and navigate covertly during the conflict, have now restored transponder signals and are transporting full loads of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf.

Crude Oil Export Data Recovery; Strait Traffic Warms Up however Has Not Returned to Pre-War Levels

The maritime blockade immediately dealt a heavy blow to Iranian crude oil sales: Before the blockade was implemented, Iran's daily crude oil exports stably exceeded 1.5 million barrels; after the US implemented the blockade in April, the daily average shipping volume in might plummeted to 260,000 barrels.

After the signing of the MOU, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded significantly. According to statistics from shipping data firm Kpler, the number of vessels transiting the Strait rose to 35 on Saturday; on Sunday, triggered by risk-averse market panic caused by relevant statements from Iran, the number of transits fell back to 17. Compared with the pre-war norm of over 100 vessels transiting daily, there is still significant room to recovery in current shipping activity.