Methanol Market Prices Were Falling Rapidly

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 15 to June 23 (as of 15:00), domestic methanol quotes at East China ports fell from 3,180 RMB/ton to approximately 2,777 RMB/ton. During this period, prices dropped by 12.66% (down 12.20% month-on-month, but up 2.12% year-on-year). The domestic port methanol market experienced a rapid decline; the primary driver was the expectation of recovering import volumes amidst shifting international conditions, which pushed prices down sharply. Methanol prices in the domestic hinterland also plummeted; expectations of increased future imports—fueled by easing geopolitical tensions—combined with weak spot market fundamentals to trigger a steep price drop. Downstream buyers adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" approach, unwilling to purchase in a falling market, resulting in sluggish trading activity.

As of the close on June 23, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed reduce. The main contract (2609) opened at 2,508 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,559 RMB/ton and a low of 2,485 RMB/ton, and settled at 2,493 RMB/ton at the close—a decline of 39 RMB (1.54%) from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume stood at 1,032,302 lots, open interest at 682,499 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -10,063 lots.

Summary of methanol market prices across regions as of June 23:

On the cost side, the supply of market-traded coal has tightened, and prices to chemical-grade coal remain firm; downstream procurement is driven primarily by essential demand, providing solid cost support. Consequently, cost-side factors are exerting a bullish affect on methanol.

On the demand side, looking at downstream sectors: prices to glacial acetic acid saw upward adjustments only at vegetation in the Northwest; the formaldehyde market trended weaker; and the dimethyl ether market remained stable. Most downstream items were influenced by methanol prices, with demand-side factors exerting downward pressure.

Regarding supply, the Wangcang Hezhong plant is undergoing maintenance, and two vegetation in Inner Mongolia have briefly reduced output; meanwhile, one plant in Ningxia has resumed operations after maintenance, and two vegetation in Inner Mongolia have returned to healthy production levels. As the volume of lost output exceeds the volume of recovered output, overall production has decreased, leading to a decline in capacity utilization. These factors are exerting a bullish affect on the methanol supply side.

In terms of overseas markets, as of the close on June 22, methanol prices settled at $539-541/tonne CFR Southeast Asia and 154-156 cents/gallon FOB US Gulf; the FOB Rotterdam market in Europe closed at €509-511/tonne.

Market Outlook:

Data from the SunSirs spot market platform indicates that, given current supply-demand fundamentals and sector conditions, the domestic formic acid market is unlikely to shake off its weak direction in the short term; the recent period of sideways movement represents merely a brief pause, and prices are expected to decline further. Future market trends will depend largely on the extent of concentrated restocking by downstream sectors and the actual progress of maintenance work at domestic formic acid production facilities.

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