Why is U.S. crude oil favored? Thai-Japanese procurement data spread trade negotiation logic dismantling

Thai-Japanese refiners continue to buy U.S. crude oil, with geopolitical/price difference/negotiation thrust behind the 30%-42% increase in imports.

Current state of 1. procurement: data highlights strategic shift

from September 29 to October 2, four major Thai and Japanese refiners, including the Thai National Petroleum Corporation (PTT) and Japan's ENEOS, revealed that they will continue to actively purchase US crude oil for the rest of this year. The latest data from the two countries confirm this trend: Thai customs data show that crude oil imports from the United States reached 146682 barrels per day in August, an increase of 44.7 percent over the same period last year; imports from January to August reached 151250 barrels per day, an increase of 30.5 percent over the same period last year, accounting for nearly 16 percent of the total imports of 956758 barrels per day in the same period. Japan's Ministry of economy, Trade and Industry (METI) data on September 30 showed that imports from the United States in August were 68918 barrels per day, down 7.8 per cent from a year earlier but higher than the three-year average of 62497 barrels per day, with imports reaching 85017 barrels per day from January to August, an increase of 42.9 per cent over the same period last year. Among them, PTT in June this year, the United States crude oil imports reached 7.3 million barrels, a record high.

2. core motivation: three factors driving together

(I) geo-risk aversion: reducing Middle East dependence

geopolitical tensions have become an important driver. Thai refiners pointed out that the turmoil in the Middle East has led to a sharp decline in profits, which is accelerating the diversification of crude oil sources. PTT has set up an emergency team to optimize its procurement strategy, and increasing US oil procurement is the core measure. Japanese refiners, for their part, cited the need for the industry to cut its over-reliance on Middle Eastern crude as the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates. ENEOS raw material inventory manager said bluntly that the purchase of U.S. oil is a shift to a "non-Middle Eastern" reliable source, in line with the goal of "reducing the risk of volatile regions.

(II) price advantage: low-sulfur crude oil is more economical

the pricing advantage of U.S. crude oil forms a direct attraction. Platts energy information data show that the end of August Brent-Dubai crude oil futures swap spread (EFS) turned negative, August 27 fell to -0.08 U.S. dollars/barrel, a new low since March 21; the third quarter EFS average of 0.76 U.S. dollars/barrel, compared with the second quarter of 1.43 U.S. dollars/barrel significantly narrowed. This means that Middle Eastern crude oil, which is linked to Dubai crude oil, is less economical than low-sulfur crude oil in the Americas and other regions. Data on October 1 showed that the price difference between US WTI Midland crude oil and Murban crude oil was -0.31 US dollars/barrel, far below the high of the year, further strengthening the purchasing power.

(III) Diplomacy: Demand for Service Trade Negotiation

US oil procurement has also become a strategic tool in trade negotiations. PTT sources revealed that large imports of U.S. oil have helped Thailand gain an advantage in trade negotiations. At present, it has successfully reduced the U.S. reciprocal tariff from 36% to 19%. The policy has come into effect since August 6. It is still planned to consolidate its negotiating position with "promised imports. Japanese refiners and trade analysts also said that although the United States imposed a 15% import tariff on Japanese goods, the increase in US oil purchases is expected to win more bargaining chips for the government in subsequent negotiations.

Shandong zhemei 160000 tons of PMMA to be put into production soon

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