2025 chemical industry weathervane: steady growth, digital, the sea... where are the opportunities?

Combined with the current policy orientation, technology trends and market demand, the recent focus of the chemical industry has the following directions:

1. The Work Plan for Steady Growth in Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026) was released, which clearly proposes to strictly control new refining capacity, reasonably regulate the pace of production capacity of basic chemicals such as ethylene and xylene, and support technical research in key areas such as electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins and high-performance fibers.

This plan aims to guarantee the stable development of the chemical industry in 2025 and 2026, and clarifies the main development directions and goals for these two years, the core of which is the stable and high-quality growth of the chemical industry. Before China's carbon peak, China's chemical industry still takes stable growth as its main goal, and needs to match the market's demand for high-end chemicals. "Stability and high quality" is the core development idea.

2, "Industrial Internet and petrochemical industry integration application reference guide (2025)" released, put forward the "8 plus 2" application model, including intelligent production, digital management and "industrial Internet plus safety production" and other scenarios. It also includes artificial intelligence and petrochemical chemical "action to promote the industry's large model training.

The industrial Internet and intelligent development of the chemical industry is the general trend, which has a huge effect on the overall cost reduction of enterprises and digital reform. Many enterprises have already laid out in advance. In the era of global competition, the Internet transformation of the chemical industry will drive the improvement of competitive advantage.

3, China's chemical enterprises to accelerate the layout in Southeast Asia, including the export of products to Southeast Asia, as well as the construction of local factories in Southeast Asia and other strategic directions. For example, Wuhu Baolute has accelerated the export of HDPE products to Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries. Guanzun Energy announced in April 2025 that it will invest US $3.5 billion to build an oil refinery in Kampot Province, Cambodia. Wan Kai New Material Starts 750000 Tons/Year Polyester Bottle Project in Wandan Province, Indonesia in April 2025; Jianfa Co., Ltd. will start production in February 2025 at Thailand's Semufu Rubber Factory. Tongcheng New Material will jointly build 30000 tons/year rubber additive base with related parties in March 2025; shandong Yanggu Huatai Factory in February 2025 starts in Thailand's Luo Yongfu Factory; Huagang Group will start construction of high-end chemical fiber knitted fabric base in Semarang, Indonesia in June 2024. Longpan Technology will be put into operation in early 2025 for Indonesia's 30000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project. New Zebang September 2025 Malaysia Kedah Electrolyte Factory No.1 will be put into operation; Formez Tire will be put into production in May 2025 in Kratie Kratie, Cambodia; the first phase of 6 million semi-steel tires at the 32-hectare base in Cambodia is expected to be put into production in 2026.

Southeast Asia is an important strategic direction of China's chemical industry in the next five years, and there is still a huge consumer market and labor cost advantage. In addition, building factories in Southeast Asia is also more considered as the anchor point of strategic positioning in Europe and the United States, but with the local and American policy restrictions on Chinese enterprises, Southeast Asia is gradually losing the significance of the strategic anchor point of China's chemical industry.

The European Union's "Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulations" (PPWR) require that the recycled content of packaging materials should not be less than 25% before 2030, which adds more restrictions to the export of Chinese products to the European Union, which is also an important manifestation of the development trend of the global packaging industry.

The plastics used in the packaging industry are mainly PET, BOPP/PP, PVC, HDPE/LDPE, PS, PA and composite materials. At present, these products basically come from petroleum-based production processes. The EU policy requires that the regeneration content is not less than 25%, which is conducive to the development of the recycled plastics industry and the bio-based preparation process, and also brings impact and challenges to the structure and pattern of plastics in China.

5. Bio-based technology has made a great breakthrough. The first domestic bio-based polycarbonate plant was put into production in Shengtong Juyuan, Puyang City, a joint-stock enterprise of PetroChina. Isosorbide was used to replace bisphenol A, filling the gap in high-end materials. Guangxi has promoted the technological research of polylactic acid and polyhydroxyalkanoate through the mechanism of "unveiling the list", focusing on breaking through the bottleneck of non-grain raw material utilization and cost control, the traditional method relies on plant extraction or chemical synthesis, while the team constructs artificial herbal cells by tapping the steroid synthesis pathway in plants, and uses cheap carbon sources such as glucose and ethanol to directly ferment progesterone. GinkgoBioworks started a wheat-based drug production project in conjunction with ARPA-H, and developed a distributed API manufacturing technology using wheat embryo cell-free expression system.

The breakthrough of bio-based synthesis technology is the result of the rapid development of global demand for bio-based materials. Bio-based technology has important development significance in the chemical industry and is a necessary link in the global low-carbon and sustainable cycle development. Future bio-based synthesis technology, more applications in the traditional petroleum-based materials alternative, as well as the development of new bio-based materials.

6. On September 16, 2025, the International Trade Administration issued a notice on MDI imports from China: initial affirmative determination of sales below fair value, postponement of final determination, and extension of interim measures. The U.S. Department of Commerce has preliminarily determined that methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) originating in the People's Republic of China is being sold or may be sold in the United States at less than fair value. The investigation period is from 1 July 2024 to 31 December 2024, and interested parties are welcome to submit comments on this preliminary determination. Effective September 16, 2025.

This time, the United States announced the preliminary results of the anti-dumping investigation on MDI originating in China, which was mainly provoked by the "MDI Fair Trade Alliance" composed of Dow Chemical and BASF. The core lies in the trade protection of Chinese MDI products sold to the United States at low prices, and has obvious tendency and pertinence. MDI is an important export product of Wanhua Chemical, with exports to the United States accounting for about 26% of Wanhua's total exports. This trade protection has a great impact on Wanhua, Covestro China and other MDI enterprises in China.

7. On September 12, 2025, Huayi Group announced that the Wujing base plant of Shanghai Huayi Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, would be permanently discontinued. According to the relevant requirements and document spirit of government departments on industrial adjustment and transformation in Wujing area, industrial carbon peak, etc., the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Nenghua Wujing base plant has implemented permanent shutdown, which is in line with the national "double carbon" strategic direction and helps The company further fulfills its social responsibility for green development and promotes the company's green and low-carbon transformation. Its main products are methanol, acetic acid, hydrogen, syngas and other products. This shutdown plant is Shanghai Nenghua Wujing base plant (methanol design capacity of 950000 tons, 2024 capacity utilization rate of 46.5; Acetic acid design capacity of 700000 tons, 2024 capacity utilization rate of 70.7), the device was completed earlier.

Huayi Group is an important veteran chemical enterprise in China. This strategic adjustment is in line with the national requirements for the development of old equipment, and it is also one of the important strategies for Huayi Group to concentrate its efforts on the development of Guangxi petrochemical base. The permanent closure of Wujing base has a positive effect on the overall profitability and long-term development of Huayi Group.