China's revised version of the Coal Law officially landed: coal chemical industry ushered in the policy of "ballast stone" era, the three varieties of benefit pattern is clear.

At the beginning of 2026, the State Council of China officially issued a revised version of the Coal Law, upgrading the positioning of coal from "energy protection" to "national strategic cornerstone", adding a new production cost investigation system and long-term support mechanism, and establishing the core position of coal in energy security and industrial chain supply chain security from the legal level. The "Coal Law" was first promulgated in 1996. After four minor amendments in 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2016, this revision is the most powerful in 30 years.

Revised background: internal and external double pressure to force strategic upgrade

at the international level, the global energy landscape is accelerating restructuring, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and international oil and gas prices fluctuate sharply. China's dependence on foreign crude oil has been more than 70% for a long time, natural gas has been more than 45% for a long time, and energy security risks are highly concentrated on the import side. As the fossil energy with the most abundant reserves and the most stable supply in China, coal is a natural "ballast stone" to hedge international oil and gas risks ".

At the domestic level, coal accounts for more than 50% of China's primary energy consumption and is the core pillar of power supply and industrial production. At the same time, China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of chemical products, and modern coal chemical technology has achieved a breakthrough in localization, which has a realistic basis for replacing oil with coal and reducing external dependence on chemical raw materials. In the transition stage when new energy has not completely replaced traditional energy, the policy strengthening of this foundation has far-reaching significance.

The core impact on the chemical industry: the three varieties benefit pattern is clear.

The establishment of the production cost investigation system will standardize coal cost accounting, curb sharp price fluctuations, and provide more stable raw material supply and price expectations for downstream industries such as electric power and chemical industry-this is the most direct institutional benefit of this revision to the chemical industry.

In terms of coal-to-olefins, the policy benefits are reflected in three dimensions: long-term support mechanism gives priority to ensuring the stability of coal supply for modern coal chemical projects. Combined with the recent developments such as the start of the 800000-ton/year coal-to-olefins project of Xinjiang Shaneng Chemical and the promotion of the integration project of Wuhai Guangjin BDO-PBAT, the high-end transformation of coal-to-olefins is speeding up under the dual drive of policy and market.

In terms of coal-to-ethylene glycol, this variety has been dragged down by market competition and cost fluctuations for a long time, with low operating rates and pressure on industry profits. After the implementation of the revised Coal Law, the long-term support mechanism will provide financial and financial policy support, reduce project environmental protection, energy consumption and financing costs, and domestic substitution policy support is expected to be significantly enhanced. Combined with the promotion of Hengyi Petrochemical's 25.7 billion yuan coal-to-ethylene glycol project (2.4 million tons/year, put into operation in 2028), there is a clear timetable for the medium-term reconstruction of the supply pattern of coal-to-ethylene glycol.

In terms of coal-to-oil, as an alternative path for diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel, the strategic value is further highlighted under the positioning of "national strategic cornerstone. The policy will simultaneously support the coupling of coal-to-liquid projects with CCUS, green hydrogen and other technologies, promote the low-carbon development of the industry, and conform to the "double carbon" target direction.

Comprehensive judgment: incorporating the policy dividend cycle into the medium-and long-term procurement framework

this revision releases three core signals: the strategic position of coal-based raw materials is stable for a long time, and there is no risk of systematic contraction at the policy level; The cost and profit stability of coal-to-olefin, coal-to-ethylene glycol and coal-to-oil will be systematically improved, and the medium-and long-term competitiveness is expected to be improved relative to the oil-based route. High-end transformation is the core direction encouraged by the policy, and deep processing enterprises extending the chain.

For overseas traders and supply chain practitioners, this policy dividend cycle should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term price and supply forecasting framework for China's coal chemical products when formulating procurement strategies and raw material selection.